IFK Varnamo 0-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Djurgardens IF travel to Finnvedsvallen to take on IFK Varnamo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Finnvedsvallen, IFK Varnamo have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Djurgardens IF are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IFK Varnamo, 1 for Djurgardens IF and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Jul 2022, ended 0–5 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Varnamo 46% versus Djurgardens IF 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Varnamo 44% | Djurgardens IF 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Varnamo 0.89 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Varnamo attack 0.779 / defence 1.097 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.141 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.117. IFK Varnamo's attack strength of 0.779 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 16 IFK Varnamo games / 46 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 49%. Fair-value odds: IFK Varnamo 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Djurgardens IF 2.04. Djurgardens IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Djurgardens IF are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Varnamo 60% | Djurgardens IF 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Finnvedsvallen • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG IFK Varnamo 0.89 / Djurgardens IF 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Varnamo attack 0.779 / def 1.097 | Djurgardens IF attack 1.141 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
IFK Varnamo xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Djurgardens IF xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Finnvedsvallen.
What was the final score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
IFK Varnamo 0 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Finnvedsvallen.
What competition is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF part of?
IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Varnamo a 24% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Varnamo 0W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 1W.
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in?
IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Varnamo's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against Djurgardens IF's defensive record (0.78x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Djurgardens IF's attack versus IFK Varnamo's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
24%
4.16
27%
3.66
49%
2.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
IFK Varnamo xG
Total xG
2.29
1.40
Djurgardens IF xG
4.16
24%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.05
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.25
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
6%
16.82
20%
5.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.6 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for IFK Varnamo and 1.40 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Varnamo come into this having played 46 games, going 22W 9D 15L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Djurgardens IF sit at 1.96 PPG from 46 outings (27W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Varnamo on 1.63 PPG, Djurgardens IF on 1.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
IFK Varnamo's home form reads 13W 5D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Djurgardens IF have taken 1.50 points per game from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.96 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Varnamo are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.76 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Varnamo
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
IFK Varnamo have gone 22W 9D 15L in their last 46 games (1.63 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 27W 9D 10L in their last 46 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Varnamo at home or Djurgardens IF away?
IFK Varnamo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Varnamo at home: 2.00 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have IFK Varnamo or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Varnamo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jul 2022, when Djurgardens IF won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Varnamo's record when hosting Djurgardens IF specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IFK Varnamo
2
Draws
4
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Varnamo have won 2, Djurgardens IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 October 2025, when Djurgardens IF 6-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Varnamo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Varnamo 46%, Djurgardens IF 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for IFK Varnamo and 27% for Djurgardens IF.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Djurgardens IF in 36%; Djurgardens IF in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Varnamo home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Varnamo play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of IFK Varnamo's recent matches and 32% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Varnamo vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of IFK Varnamo's recent games and 27% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
IFK Varnamo have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IFK Varnamo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finnvedsvallen, Regular Season - 17, as IFK Varnamo and Djurgardens IF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Varnamo 0.89 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.40 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Varnamo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Djurgardens IF landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Varnamo attack 0.78 / defence 1.10 against Djurgardens IF attack 1.14 / defence 0.78, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Varnamo 24% | Draw 27% | Djurgardens IF 49%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Varnamo 44%, Djurgardens IF 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Varnamo 1.63 PPG, Djurgardens IF 1.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.