IFK Norrkoping 2-2 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PlatinumCars Arena plays host to IFK Norrkoping versus Mjallby AIF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Thursday 28 October 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IFK Norrkoping have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 7W 1D 2L at PlatinumCars Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.90 for IFK Norrkoping, 1.60 for Mjallby AIF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: IFK Norrkoping 1W, Mjallby AIF 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Mjallby AIF half-time and goal-timing data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Norrkoping 68% versus Mjallby AIF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Norrkoping 65% | Mjallby AIF 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Norrkoping 1.30 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.194 / defence 0.919 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.892 / defence 0.727. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.100. Mjallby AIF's defence strength of 0.727 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 54 IFK Norrkoping games / 54 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 25%. Fair-value odds: IFK Norrkoping 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Mjallby AIF 4.00. IFK Norrkoping hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Norrkoping as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Norrkoping if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IFK Norrkoping 60% | Mjallby AIF 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: PlatinumCars Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 28 Oct 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG IFK Norrkoping 1.30 / Mjallby AIF 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Norrkoping attack 1.194 / def 0.919 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.892 / def 0.727 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
IFK Norrkoping xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 28 October 2021 at PlatinumCars Arena.
What was the final score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
IFK Norrkoping 2 - 2 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at PlatinumCars Arena.
What competition is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IFK Norrkoping a 45% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): IFK Norrkoping 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in?
IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IFK Norrkoping's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (0.89x) against IFK Norrkoping's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
45%
2.23
30%
3.32
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
IFK Norrkoping xG
Total xG
2.20
0.90
Mjallby AIF xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
7%
14.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for IFK Norrkoping and 0.90 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
IFK Norrkoping come into this having played 54 games, going 25W 10D 19L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.37 PPG from 54 outings (19W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.57 PPG for IFK Norrkoping against 1.37 for Mjallby AIF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
IFK Norrkoping's home form reads 13W 7D 6L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 1.15 points per game from 26 outings (7W 9D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Norrkoping come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IFK Norrkoping are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.31 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Norrkoping have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IFK Norrkoping have gone 25W 10D 19L in their last 54 games (1.57 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 19W 17D 18L in their last 54 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Norrkoping at home or Mjallby AIF away?
IFK Norrkoping's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Norrkoping at home: 1.77 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.15 PPG.
Have IFK Norrkoping or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Norrkoping have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mjallby AIF won 3-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Norrkoping have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
IFK Norrkoping
4
Draws
4
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Mjallby AIF 2-1 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Norrkoping 69%, Mjallby AIF 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IFK Norrkoping) and 46% (Mjallby AIF).
On the defensive side: Mjallby AIF in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Norrkoping home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Norrkoping play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of IFK Norrkoping's games and 54% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Norrkoping vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IFK Norrkoping's recent games and 46% of Mjallby AIF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IFK Norrkoping have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PlatinumCars Arena, Regular Season - 25, as IFK Norrkoping and Mjallby AIF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Norrkoping 1.30 xG and Mjallby AIF 0.90 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Mjallby AIF outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Norrkoping attack 1.19 / defence 0.92 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.89 / defence 0.73, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Norrkoping 45% | Draw 30% | Mjallby AIF 25%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Norrkoping 65%, Mjallby AIF 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Norrkoping 1.57 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.