IFK Goteborg 0-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Varnamo at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 18 as IFK Goteborg welcome IFK Varnamo to Gamla Ullevi. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 August 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gamla Ullevi, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Varnamo — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for IFK Varnamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (IFK Goteborg) versus 1.10 (IFK Varnamo). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, IFK Goteborg have won 2, IFK Varnamo 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 0–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 49% versus IFK Varnamo 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 40% | IFK Varnamo 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.839 / defence 1.157 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.957 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.377. IFK Varnamo's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 47 IFK Goteborg games / 47 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 48%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 2.08. IFK Varnamo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Varnamo as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IFK Varnamo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IFK Goteborg 60% | IFK Varnamo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.04 / IFK Varnamo 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.839 / def 1.157 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.957 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.377 • Poisson stance: IFK Varnamo (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.52
IFK Varnamo xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg 0 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 26% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IFK Varnamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
Record (5 meetings): IFK Goteborg 2W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 3W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IFK Goteborg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (0.75x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.04. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Varnamo Win
26%
3.85
26%
3.90
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.57
1.52
IFK Varnamo xG
3.85
26%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
6%
17.67
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.52 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 13W 14D 20L from 47 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 19W 6D 22L across 47 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for IFK Varnamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IFK Goteborg on 1.13 PPG, IFK Varnamo on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 7W 6D 10L from 23 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 12W 2D 9L across 23 trips, a 1.65 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IFK Varnamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.23 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
IFK Varnamo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 13W 14D 20L in their last 47 games (1.13 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 19W 6D 22L in their last 47 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Varnamo away?
IFK Varnamo's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.17 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 30 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: IFK Goteborg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2022, when IFK Goteborg won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 4, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2025, when IFK Goteborg 1-0 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 48%, IFK Varnamo 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (IFK Goteborg) and 52% (IFK Varnamo).
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 35%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IFK Goteborg's recent matches and 44% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IFK Goteborg's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Goteborg and IFK Varnamo finished level at 0-0 at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 18, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.04 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.52 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IFK Goteborg fell 1.0 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.84 / defence 1.16 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.96 / defence 0.75, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 26% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 48%, with IFK Varnamo to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 40%, IFK Varnamo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.13 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.