IFK Goteborg 1-1 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IFK Goteborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gamla Ullevi plays host to IFK Goteborg versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
IFK Goteborg (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IFK Goteborg's home record at Gamla Ullevi: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
IFK Norrkoping's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Norrkoping have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward IFK Goteborg. A 0.80 PPG lead over IFK Norrkoping (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: IFK Goteborg 3W, IFK Norrkoping 2W, 1D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Aug 2023, ended 0–3 with IFK Norrkoping winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
IFK Goteborg — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
IFK Norrkoping — key trading statistics (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 48% versus IFK Norrkoping 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 45% | IFK Norrkoping 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 1.67 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.943 / defence 1.221 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.848 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.406. IFK Norrkoping bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing IFK Goteborg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 IFK Goteborg games / 33 IFK Norrkoping games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 34%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 2.33 | Draw 4.17 | IFK Norrkoping 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.67 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IFK Goteborg as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IFK Goteborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IFK Goteborg 50% | IFK Norrkoping 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG IFK Goteborg 1.67 / IFK Norrkoping 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.943 / def 1.221 | IFK Norrkoping attack 0.848 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: IFK Goteborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.46
IFK Norrkoping xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 43% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making IFK Goteborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (6 meetings): IFK Goteborg 3W | Draws 1 | IFK Norrkoping 2W.
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates IFK Goteborg's attack at 0.94x the league average against IFK Norrkoping's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (0.85x) against IFK Goteborg's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Goteborg Win
43%
2.34
24%
4.24
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
3.12
1.46
IFK Norrkoping xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
10%
10.03
6%
15.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.46 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, IFK Goteborg have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 22W 13D 25L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
IFK Norrkoping's form line: 20W 15D 25L from 60 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for IFK Goteborg against 1.25 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IFK Goteborg have posted 1.43 PPG from 30 outings (12W 7D 11L).
On the road, IFK Norrkoping have gone 8W 9D 13L from 30 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.42 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Current Season
IFK Norrkoping
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 22W 13D 25L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 20W 15D 25L in their last 60 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
IFK Goteborg's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 1.43 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
IFK Goteborg go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IFK Norrkoping won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
IFK Goteborg
2
Draws
2
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 6, IFK Norrkoping have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when IFK Goteborg 2-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Goteborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 50%, IFK Norrkoping 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (IFK Goteborg) and 60% (IFK Norrkoping).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IFK Goteborg's games and 70% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 60% of IFK Norrkoping's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 4, as IFK Goteborg and IFK Norrkoping drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 1.67 xG and IFK Norrkoping 1.46 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.94 / defence 1.22 against IFK Norrkoping attack 0.85 / defence 1.22, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 43% | Draw 24% | IFK Norrkoping 34%, with IFK Goteborg to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 45%, IFK Norrkoping 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IFK Goteborg 1.32 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.