IFK Goteborg 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IFK Goteborg host BK Hacken at Gamla Ullevi in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 23 November 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Goteborg stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 1W 3D 6L at Gamla Ullevi — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gamla Ullevi this season.
BK Hacken — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — IFK Goteborg at 1.10 PPG versus BK Hacken's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IFK Goteborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, BK Hacken in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
IFK Goteborg in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
BK Hacken in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IFK Goteborg 59% versus BK Hacken 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IFK Goteborg 52% | BK Hacken 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IFK Goteborg 0.85 xG and BK Hacken 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IFK Goteborg attack 0.704 / defence 1.303 | BK Hacken attack 0.711 / defence 1.074. League average goals — home 1.128 / away 1.392. IFK Goteborg's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 IFK Goteborg games / 27 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 45%. Fair-value odds: IFK Goteborg 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | BK Hacken 2.22. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.14 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: IFK Goteborg 60% | BK Hacken 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Gamla Ullevi • Kick-off: Monday 23 Nov 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG IFK Goteborg 0.85 / BK Hacken 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: IFK Goteborg attack 0.704 / def 1.303 | BK Hacken attack 0.711 / def 1.074 | league avg home 1.128 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
IFK Goteborg xG
Expected Goals
1.29
BK Hacken xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 November 2020 at Gamla Ullevi.
What was the final score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
IFK Goteborg 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Gamla Ullevi.
What competition is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IFK Goteborg a 23% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in?
IFK Goteborg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from IFK Goteborg's attack rating (0.70) and BK Hacken's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.85 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IFK Goteborg's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
23%
4.29
31%
3.19
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
IFK Goteborg xG
Total xG
2.14
1.29
BK Hacken xG
4.29
23%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
43%
2.35
Win to Nil
6%
15.59
19%
5.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 15.1 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for IFK Goteborg and 1.29 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
IFK Goteborg's recent record stands at 5W 12D 10L from 27 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 5L across 27 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-D-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours BK Hacken by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over IFK Goteborg heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, IFK Goteborg have managed 2W 4D 7L from 13 games — 0.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 3W 7D 3L across 13 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IFK Goteborg are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.52 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: BK Hacken in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IFK Goteborg
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IFK Goteborg have gone 5W 12D 10L in their last 27 games (1.00 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 11W 11D 5L in their last 27 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IFK Goteborg at home or BK Hacken away?
BK Hacken's away record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IFK Goteborg at home: 0.77 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.23 PPG.
Have IFK Goteborg or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
IFK Goteborg have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when BK Hacken won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IFK Goteborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IFK Goteborg
1
Draws
6
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IFK Goteborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-2 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IFK Goteborg 54%, BK Hacken 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IFK Goteborg) and 46% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 31%; IFK Goteborg have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IFK Goteborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IFK Goteborg play BK Hacken?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IFK Goteborg's games and 62% of BK Hacken's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IFK Goteborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IFK Goteborg's recent games and 46% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IFK Goteborg have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gamla Ullevi, Regular Season - 28, as IFK Goteborg and BK Hacken drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IFK Goteborg 0.85 xG and BK Hacken 1.29 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IFK Goteborg attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against BK Hacken attack 0.71 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IFK Goteborg 23% | Draw 31% | BK Hacken 45%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IFK Goteborg 52%, BK Hacken 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.