IF Elfsborg 0-2 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Borås Arena plays host to IF Elfsborg versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 9 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Kalmar FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kalmar FF's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for IF Elfsborg, 2.00 for Kalmar FF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Kalmar FF in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — IF Elfsborg lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Kalmar FF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
IF Elfsborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Kalmar FF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 52% versus Kalmar FF 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | Kalmar FF 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.07 xG and Kalmar FF 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.415 / defence 1.125 | Kalmar FF attack 1.064 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.147. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.415 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 54 IF Elfsborg games / 54 Kalmar FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 24%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Kalmar FF 4.17. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.07 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 80% | Kalmar FF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.07 / Kalmar FF 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.415 / def 1.125 | Kalmar FF attack 1.064 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
67%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 October 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
IF Elfsborg 0 - 2 Kalmar FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 52% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Record (4 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 1 | Kalmar FF 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Kalmar FF (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Kalmar FF's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.07. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.06x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.05
24%
4.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
2 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.44
1.37
Kalmar FF xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.24
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
13%
7.64
3%
33.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.37 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 26W 13D 15L record — L-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kalmar FF's form line: 25W 13D 16L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Kalmar FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for IF Elfsborg against 1.63 for Kalmar FF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.88 PPG from 26 outings (14W 7D 5L).
On the road, Kalmar FF have gone 10W 6D 10L from 26 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Kalmar FF are on 1.30 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Kalmar FF in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Kalmar FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 26W 13D 15L in their last 54 games (1.69 PPG), while Kalmar FF have gone 25W 13D 16L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Kalmar FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.88 PPG; Kalmar FF away: 1.38 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Kalmar FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Kalmar FF in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2020 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 9 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, IF Elfsborg have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
5
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, Kalmar FF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Kalmar FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 54%, Kalmar FF 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (IF Elfsborg) and 54% (Kalmar FF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Kalmar FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of IF Elfsborg's games and 62% of Kalmar FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Kalmar FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 54% of Kalmar FF's.
Do IF Elfsborg and Kalmar FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Kalmar FF in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kalmar FF cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over IF Elfsborg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat IF Elfsborg 0-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.07 xG and Kalmar FF 1.37 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. IF Elfsborg fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.42 / defence 1.12 against Kalmar FF attack 1.06 / defence 0.98, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 25% | Kalmar FF 24%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Kalmar FF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, Kalmar FF 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Kalmar FF's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.69 PPG, Kalmar FF 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kalmar FF win broke the near-deadlock. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Kalmar FF (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.