IF Elfsborg 4-1 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees IFK Varnamo travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 April 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
IF Elfsborg's home record at Borås Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Borås Arena.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.45 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 0.916 / defence 1.117 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.857 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.160. Data: 32 IF Elfsborg games / 2 IFK Varnamo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 29%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | IFK Varnamo 3.45. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Elfsborg as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.45 / IFK Varnamo 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 0.916 / def 1.117 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.857 / def 1.192 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.11
IFK Varnamo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 17 April 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 1 IFK Varnamo.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 45% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. IF Elfsborg home split: 2.00 PPG from 10 | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | CS 5.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (32/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.6%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
45%
2.23
26%
3.82
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.56
1.11
IFK Varnamo xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
23%
4.27
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.6 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.4 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.11 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Pre-Season
IFK Varnamo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 11 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Apr 2022, when IF Elfsborg won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
5
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 11 August 2025, when IF Elfsborg 2-2 IFK Varnamo.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IFK Varnamo?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 4-1 hammering of IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IFK Varnamo 4-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.45 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.11 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 0.92 / defence 1.12 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.86 / defence 1.19, drawn from 32/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 26% | IFK Varnamo 29%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.