IF Elfsborg 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 13 as IF Elfsborg welcome IF Brommapojkarna to Borås Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 July 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Borås Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 1.10 (IF Brommapojkarna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Elfsborg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for IF Elfsborg, 0 for IF Brommapojkarna and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 3–0 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IF Elfsborg in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 44% versus IF Brommapojkarna 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 58% | IF Brommapojkarna 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.91 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.277 / defence 0.838 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.133 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.668 / away 1.374. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.277 — their λ of 1.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 43 IF Elfsborg games / 42 IF Brommapojkarna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.92 | Draw 4.55 | IF Brommapojkarna 3.85. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.22. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.22 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.30) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.22 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 60% | IF Brommapojkarna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.91 / IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.277 / def 0.838 | IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.133 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.668 / away 1.374 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.30
IF Brommapojkarna xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg 3 - 0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna part of?
IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 52% chance of winning, IF Brommapojkarna a 26% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
Record (2 meetings): IF Elfsborg 2W | Draws 0 | IF Brommapojkarna 0W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.28x league average) is weighed against IF Brommapojkarna's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.91. The same calculation in reverse, IF Brommapojkarna's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
52%
1.93
22%
4.49
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.22
1.30
IF Brommapojkarna xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
4%
26.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 10.0 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.30 for IF Brommapojkarna, a combined total of 3.22.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg come into this having played 43 games, going 25W 5D 13L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-L. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IF Brommapojkarna sit at 1.21 PPG from 43 outings (14W 10D 19L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.65 PPG clear of IF Brommapojkarna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
IF Elfsborg's home form reads 14W 4D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, IF Brommapojkarna have taken 1.33 points per game from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; IF Brommapojkarna are on 1.51 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 5D 13L in their last 43 games (1.86 PPG), while IF Brommapojkarna have gone 14W 10D 19L in their last 43 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or IF Brommapojkarna away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 2.19 PPG; IF Brommapojkarna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or IF Brommapojkarna been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IF Brommapojkarna in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Apr 2023, when IF Elfsborg won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting IF Brommapojkarna specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
IF Elfsborg
1
Draws
1
IF Brommapojkarna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 5, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 48%, IF Brommapojkarna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (IF Elfsborg) and 57% (IF Brommapojkarna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / IF Brommapojkarna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play IF Brommapojkarna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs IF Brommapojkarna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 57% of IF Brommapojkarna's.
Do IF Elfsborg and IF Brommapojkarna tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, IF Brommapojkarna in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant IF Elfsborg run riot with a 3-0 hammering of IF Brommapojkarna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat IF Brommapojkarna 3-0 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.91 xG and IF Brommapojkarna 1.30 xG, a combined 3.22. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. IF Brommapojkarna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.28 / defence 0.84 against IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.13 / defence 0.90, drawn from 43/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 52% | Draw 22% | IF Brommapojkarna 26%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 58%, IF Brommapojkarna 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.