IF Elfsborg 4-2 Falkenbergs FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Elfsborg at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Falkenbergs FF make the trip to Borås Arena to face IF Elfsborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Thursday 13 August 2020 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
IF Elfsborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg at Borås Arena this season: 2W 4D 0L from 6 home games — 1.67 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Falkenbergs FF have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Falkenbergs FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Falkenbergs FF's away record: 2W 3D 2L from 7 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.29 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward IF Elfsborg. A 1.30 PPG lead over Falkenbergs FF (2.10 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — IF Elfsborg have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, Falkenbergs FF in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading
IF Elfsborg half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Falkenbergs FF half-time and goal-timing data (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 50% versus Falkenbergs FF 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 50% | Falkenbergs FF 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.63 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.225 / defence 1.265 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.816 / defence 1.196. League average goals — home 1.114 / away 1.306. Data: 14 IF Elfsborg games / 14 Falkenbergs FF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Falkenbergs FF 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Elfsborg 67% | Falkenbergs FF 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 13 Aug 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.63 / Falkenbergs FF 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.225 / def 1.265 | Falkenbergs FF attack 0.816 / def 1.196 | league avg home 1.114 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Falkenbergs FF xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 13 August 2020 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
IF Elfsborg 4 - 2 Falkenbergs FF.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF part of?
IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 43% chance of winning, Falkenbergs FF a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. Falkenbergs FF (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
IF Elfsborg's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Falkenbergs FF's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Falkenbergs FF's attack (0.82x) against IF Elfsborg's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 14/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
43%
2.33
27%
3.73
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.35
Falkenbergs FF xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.73
27%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
20%
5.11
Win to Nil
11%
8.98
6%
16.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.1 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.35 for Falkenbergs FF, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 14 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 7W 6D 1L record — W-D-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Falkenbergs FF's form line: 2W 6D 6L from 14 games, 0.86 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for Falkenbergs FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, IF Elfsborg are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Falkenbergs FF.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.67 PPG from 6 outings (2W 4D 0L).
On the road, Falkenbergs FF have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Falkenbergs FF are on 1.07 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Falkenbergs FF in 64%.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
Falkenbergs FF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 7W 6D 1L in their last 14 games (1.93 PPG), while Falkenbergs FF have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or Falkenbergs FF away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.67 PPG; Falkenbergs FF away: 1.00 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or Falkenbergs FF been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Falkenbergs FF in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2020 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2020, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
IF Elfsborg
0
Draws
0
Falkenbergs FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF?
From 2 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 2, Falkenbergs FF have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2020, when Falkenbergs FF 1-3 IF Elfsborg.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF?
IF Elfsborg have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Falkenbergs FF see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for IF Elfsborg, 83% for Falkenbergs FF — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (IF Elfsborg) and 50% (Falkenbergs FF).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / Falkenbergs FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play Falkenbergs FF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of IF Elfsborg's games and 83% of Falkenbergs FF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Elfsborg vs Falkenbergs FF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 50% of Falkenbergs FF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and Falkenbergs FF tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Falkenbergs FF in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Falkenbergs FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg beat Falkenbergs FF 4-2 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.63 xG and Falkenbergs FF 1.35 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. IF Elfsborg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.23 / defence 1.26 against Falkenbergs FF attack 0.82 / defence 1.20, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 43% | Draw 27% | Falkenbergs FF 30%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 50%, Falkenbergs FF 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Falkenbergs FF's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, IF Elfsborg arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm. Falkenbergs FF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.