IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 45%, yet in-form BK Hacken provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees BK Hacken travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Monday 25 May 2026, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Elfsborg — All Games: 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
At home at Borås Arena, IF Elfsborg have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — IF Elfsborg are significantly better at Borås Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, BK Hacken stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
BK Hacken's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. BK Hacken are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for IF Elfsborg, 4 for BK Hacken and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with IF Elfsborg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
IF Elfsborg in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 55% versus BK Hacken 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 65% | BK Hacken 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 1.43 xG and BK Hacken 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.031 / defence 0.729 | BK Hacken attack 1.081 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.350. IF Elfsborg's defence rating of 0.729 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 39 IF Elfsborg games / 38 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 28%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | BK Hacken 3.57. IF Elfsborg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, IF Elfsborg are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form BK Hacken (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Elfsborg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 60% | BK Hacken 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Monday 25 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG IF Elfsborg 1.43 / BK Hacken 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.031 / def 0.729 | BK Hacken attack 1.081 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.06
BK Hacken xG
50%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 25 May 2026 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
IF Elfsborg 1 - 1 BK Hacken.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken part of?
IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 45% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
Record (9 meetings): IF Elfsborg 3W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 4W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. BK Hacken (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from IF Elfsborg's attack rating (1.03) and BK Hacken's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
45%
2.22
27%
3.65
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
2.49
1.06
BK Hacken xG
2.22
45%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.06 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
IF Elfsborg's recent record stands at 25W 10D 25L from 60 games, a 1.42 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five.
BK Hacken, meanwhile, have gone 21W 14D 25L across 60 games — 1.28 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.42 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, IF Elfsborg have managed 16W 6D 8L from 30 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
BK Hacken's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.60 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Current Season
BK Hacken
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 25W 10D 25L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or BK Hacken away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.80 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 3L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
IF Elfsborg
3
Draws
4
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 3, BK Hacken have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 63%, BK Hacken 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for IF Elfsborg and 60% for BK Hacken. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: BK Hacken in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 43% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of IF Elfsborg's matches and 60% of BK Hacken's.
Do IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Elfsborg and BK Hacken finished level at 1-1 at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 1.43 xG and BK Hacken 1.06 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.03 / defence 0.73 against BK Hacken attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 39/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 45% | Draw 27% | BK Hacken 28%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 65%, BK Hacken 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.42 PPG, BK Hacken 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.