IF Elfsborg 2-2 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Elfsborg at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees AIK Stockholm travel to Borås Arena to take on IF Elfsborg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Elfsborg have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, IF Elfsborg have posted 6W 2D 2L at Borås Arena — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, AIK Stockholm stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for AIK Stockholm, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (IF Elfsborg) versus 2.10 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for IF Elfsborg, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2021, ended 2–4 with AIK Stockholm winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
IF Elfsborg trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
AIK Stockholm trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Elfsborg 48% versus AIK Stockholm 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Elfsborg 57% | AIK Stockholm 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Elfsborg 2.08 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Elfsborg attack 1.290 / defence 1.010 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.128 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.056. IF Elfsborg carry an above-average attack strength of 1.290 — their λ of 2.08 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 IF Elfsborg games / 43 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | AIK Stockholm 21%. Fair-value odds: IF Elfsborg 1.72 | Draw 4.76 | AIK Stockholm 4.76. The model has a clear lean to IF Elfsborg (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.28. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.28 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (2.08 / 1.20) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Elfsborg at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.28 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: IF Elfsborg 50% | AIK Stockholm 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Borås Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | AIK Stockholm 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 61% | xG IF Elfsborg 2.08 / AIK Stockholm 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: IF Elfsborg attack 1.290 / def 1.010 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.128 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: IF Elfsborg (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.08
IF Elfsborg xG
Expected Goals
1.20
AIK Stockholm xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Borås Arena.
What was the final score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
IF Elfsborg 2 - 2 AIK Stockholm.
Where is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Borås Arena.
What competition is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm part of?
IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives IF Elfsborg a 58% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 21% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making IF Elfsborg the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
Record (1 meetings): IF Elfsborg 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in?
IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates IF Elfsborg's attack at 1.29x the league average against AIK Stockholm's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 2.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus IF Elfsborg's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Elfsborg Win
58%
1.74
21%
4.78
21%
4.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
2 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.08
IF Elfsborg xG
Total xG
3.28
1.20
AIK Stockholm xG
1.74
58%
Home win
4.78
21%
Draw
4.65
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
12%
8.01
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
3%
37.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.08 expected goals for IF Elfsborg and 1.20 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, IF Elfsborg have picked up 1.76 PPG on a 22W 8D 12L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 24W 8D 10L from 42 games, 1.90 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-L. The sample for AIK Stockholm is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Elfsborg on 1.76 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Elfsborg have posted 1.90 PPG from 21 outings (12W 4D 5L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 7W 5D 9L from 21 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Elfsborg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
IF Elfsborg are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.45 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Elfsborg
Blended
AIK Stockholm
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
IF Elfsborg have gone 22W 8D 12L in their last 42 games (1.76 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 24W 8D 10L in their last 42 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Elfsborg at home or AIK Stockholm away?
IF Elfsborg's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Elfsborg at home: 1.90 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.24 PPG.
Have IF Elfsborg or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Elfsborg have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2024, when IF Elfsborg won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Elfsborg's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
IF Elfsborg
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, IF Elfsborg have won 4, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when IF Elfsborg 1-1 AIK Stockholm.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Elfsborg 48%, AIK Stockholm 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (IF Elfsborg) and 43% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: IF Elfsborg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Elfsborg home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Elfsborg play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of IF Elfsborg's recent matches and 52% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Elfsborg vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of IF Elfsborg's recent games and 43% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
IF Elfsborg have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Borås Arena, Regular Season - 13, as IF Elfsborg and AIK Stockholm drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Elfsborg 2.08 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.20 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Elfsborg attack 1.29 / defence 1.01 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.13 / defence 1.09, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Elfsborg 58% | Draw 21% | AIK Stockholm 21%, with IF Elfsborg to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Elfsborg 57%, AIK Stockholm 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Elfsborg 1.76 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Elfsborg (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.