IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Sirius – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 39%, yet in-form Sirius provide a compelling counter-argument — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 5 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Sirius to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
IF Brommapojkarna — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
IF Brommapojkarna's home record at Grimsta IP: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sirius stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sirius away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Sirius's 2.20 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of IF Brommapojkarna's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for IF Brommapojkarna, 2 for Sirius and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–3 with Sirius winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sirius in-play and half-time data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 62% versus Sirius 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 67% | Sirius 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG and Sirius 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.062 / defence 1.120 | Sirius attack 0.941 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.328. Data: 34 IF Brommapojkarna games / 34 Sirius games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Sirius 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sirius (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Sirius 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 / Sirius 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.062 / def 1.120 | Sirius attack 0.941 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.328 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Sirius xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 1 Sirius.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 39% chance of winning, Sirius a 36% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
Record (2 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 0W | Draws 0 | Sirius 2W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-W-D. Sirius (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Sirius's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, Sirius's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
39%
2.54
25%
4.03
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.88
1.40
Sirius xG
2.54
39%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
25%
4.05
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
10%
10.27
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.6 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.6 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.40 for Sirius, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 60 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 29W 9D 22L record — L-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sirius's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.60 PPG, Sirius on 1.28. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.77 PPG from 30 outings (16W 5D 9L).
On the road, Sirius have gone 8W 11D 11L from 30 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, IF Brommapojkarna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Sirius are on 1.37 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IF Brommapojkarna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Current Season
Sirius
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 29W 9D 22L in their last 60 games (1.60 PPG), while Sirius have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Sirius away?
IF Brommapojkarna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.77 PPG; Sirius away: 1.17 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Sirius been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sirius in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 12 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Sirius have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2025, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Sirius specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
IF Brommapojkarna
1
Draws
5
Sirius
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 1, Sirius have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius last play each other?
They last met on 12 July 2026, when IF Brommapojkarna 1-2 Sirius.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius?
Sirius have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Sirius are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 63%, Sirius 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for IF Brommapojkarna and 53% for Sirius. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sirius in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Sirius away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Sirius?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 47% of Sirius's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Sirius usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 53% of Sirius's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Sirius in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IF Brommapojkarna and Sirius finished level at 1-1 at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 5, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.48 xG and Sirius 1.40 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.06 / defence 1.12 against Sirius attack 0.94 / defence 1.02, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 25% | Sirius 36%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 67%, Sirius 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Sirius's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.60 PPG, Sirius 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.