IF Brommapojkarna 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 23 as IF Brommapojkarna welcome Mjallby AIF to Grimsta IP. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 September 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IF Brommapojkarna have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mjallby AIF stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Mjallby AIF are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for IF Brommapojkarna, 0 for Mjallby AIF and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
IF Brommapojkarna trading profile (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Mjallby AIF trading profile (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 60% versus Mjallby AIF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 65% | Mjallby AIF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.048 / defence 1.347 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.863 / defence 1.011. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.369. Data: 52 IF Brommapojkarna games / 52 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 37%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.56 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
IF Brommapojkarna dominate the H2H record, yet Mjallby AIF are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Mjallby AIF (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 70% | Mjallby AIF 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 64% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 / Mjallby AIF 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.048 / def 1.347 | Mjallby AIF attack 0.863 / def 1.011 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Mjallby AIF xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
IF Brommapojkarna 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 39% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
Record (3 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 1 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
IF Brommapojkarna's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Mjallby AIF's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Mjallby AIF's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
39%
2.53
23%
4.30
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
3.24
1.59
Mjallby AIF xG
2.53
39%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
8%
12.46
7%
13.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.6 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.59 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 17W 12D 23L record — D-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mjallby AIF's form line: 23W 9D 20L from 52 games, 1.50 PPG, last five L-D-W-W-D. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: IF Brommapojkarna on 1.21 PPG, Mjallby AIF on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 1.12 PPG from 25 outings (7W 7D 11L).
On the road, Mjallby AIF have gone 11W 3D 11L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.29 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 17W 12D 23L in their last 52 games (1.21 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 23W 9D 20L in their last 52 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Mjallby AIF's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 1.12 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Mjallby AIF have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Apr 2026, when Mjallby AIF won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Mjallby AIF specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
From 7 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mjallby AIF 3-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
Who has won more matches between IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF?
Mjallby AIF have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 60%, Mjallby AIF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (IF Brommapojkarna) and 48% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 32% of games; Mjallby AIF in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Mjallby AIF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of IF Brommapojkarna's recent matches and 44% of Mjallby AIF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 48% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at IF Brommapojkarna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 23, as IF Brommapojkarna and Mjallby AIF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.64 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.59 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. IF Brommapojkarna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 1.05 / defence 1.35 against Mjallby AIF attack 0.86 / defence 1.01, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 39% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 37%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 65%, Mjallby AIF 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — IF Brommapojkarna 1.21 PPG, Mjallby AIF 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.76 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.