IF Brommapojkarna 1-1 Gais – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IF Brommapojkarna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
IF Brommapojkarna host Gais at Grimsta IP in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 6 July 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Odds Analysis
Gais are the shorter-priced side — market prices: IF Brommapojkarna 3.14 (30%) | Draw 3.34 (28%) | Gais 2.19 (42%).
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, IF Brommapojkarna stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for IF Brommapojkarna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Brommapojkarna at Grimsta IP this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Grimsta IP this season.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Gais have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Gais, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gais's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: IF Brommapojkarna 1.50 PPG, Gais 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. IF Brommapojkarna register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Gais in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Gais 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Gais winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
IF Brommapojkarna in-play tendencies (40 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Gais in-play tendencies (40 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — IF Brommapojkarna 52% versus Gais 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (IF Brommapojkarna 55% | Gais 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG and Gais 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.904 / defence 1.003 | Gais attack 0.854 / defence 0.937. League average goals — home 1.666 / away 1.485. Data: 40 IF Brommapojkarna games / 41 Gais games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33%. Fair-value odds: IF Brommapojkarna 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Gais 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna at 40% but the market prices Gais shorter — model and market disagree on the likely winner; consider draw no bet on the home side.
The Poisson model's primary lean is IF Brommapojkarna at 40% — marginal model lean. The model sees IF Brommapojkarna as more likely than the market's pricing reflects — Poisson 40% versus the market's fair-implied 30% (priced at 3.14). With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on IF Brommapojkarna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game. The market (1.89, fair-implied 50%) is broadly in line with the Poisson probability.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: IF Brommapojkarna 60% | Gais 70% BTTS from recent games. Market pricing (1.68, fair-implied 55%) is broadly in line with the Poisson read on BTTS.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Grimsta IP • Kick-off: Monday 6 Jul 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 / Gais 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.904 / def 1.003 | Gais attack 0.854 / def 0.937 | league avg home 1.666 / away 1.485 • Poisson stance: IF Brommapojkarna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• 1X2 market: IF Brommapojkarna 3.14 (impl 30%) | Draw 3.34 (impl 28%) | Gais 2.19 (impl 42%) • Market favourite: Gais at 2.19 • Poisson vs market contradiction: market prices Gais as favourite (implied 42%) but Poisson rates IF Brommapojkarna higher at 40% — model diverges from the market; potential value on the home side • IF Brommapojkarna Win: Poisson 40% vs market fair-implied 30% (10pp gap) — the model sees IF Brommapojkarna as more likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Gais Win: Poisson 33% vs market fair-implied 42% (9pp gap) — the model sees Gais as less likely than the market's pricing reflects. • Goals market: Over 2.5 1.89 (impl 53%) / Under 2.5 1.88 (impl 53%) | Poisson Over 2.5 probability 50% • BTTS market: BTTS Yes 1.68 (impl 60%) / No 2.07 (impl 48%) | Poisson BTTS probability 55%
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Gais xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais kick off?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais kicked off at 17:00 on Monday 6 July 2026 at Grimsta IP.
What was the final score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
IF Brommapojkarna 1 - 1 Gais.
Where is IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais being played?
The match is being played at Grimsta IP.
What competition is IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais part of?
IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
Our statistical model gives IF Brommapojkarna a 40% chance of winning, Gais a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making IF Brommapojkarna the favourite.
Will both teams score in IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both IF Brommapojkarna and Gais will score (BTTS).
Will IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Gais?
Record (4 meetings): IF Brommapojkarna 2W | Draws 1 | Gais 1W.
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Gais in?
IF Brommapojkarna (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Gais (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
1X2 market: IF Brommapojkarna 3.14 (impl 30%) | Draw 3.34 (impl 28%) | Gais 2.19 (impl 42%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates IF Brommapojkarna's attack at 0.90x the league average against Gais's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gais's attack versus IF Brommapojkarna's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IF Brommapojkarna Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.69
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
IF Brommapojkarna xG
Total xG
2.68
1.27
Gais xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
8.99
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are IF Brommapojkarna and Gais expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for IF Brommapojkarna and 1.27 for Gais, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 40 outings, IF Brommapojkarna have picked up 1.15 PPG on a 13W 7D 20L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for IF Brommapojkarna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gais's form line: 18W 13D 9L from 40 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Gais is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Gais are the form team by 0.53 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against IF Brommapojkarna.
Venue Form
On home soil, IF Brommapojkarna have posted 0.89 PPG from 18 outings (5W 1D 12L).
On the road, Gais have gone 7W 5D 6L from 18 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gais come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
IF Brommapojkarna are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Gais are on 1.52 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
IF Brommapojkarna
Blended
Gais
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are IF Brommapojkarna and Gais in coming into this match?
IF Brommapojkarna have gone 13W 7D 20L in their last 40 games (1.15 PPG), while Gais have gone 18W 13D 9L in their last 40 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — IF Brommapojkarna at home or Gais away?
Gais's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — IF Brommapojkarna at home: 0.89 PPG; Gais away: 1.44 PPG.
Have IF Brommapojkarna or Gais been keeping clean sheets recently?
IF Brommapojkarna have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Gais in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when IF Brommapojkarna won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
IF Brommapojkarna's record when hosting Gais specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
IF Brommapojkarna
2
Draws
2
Gais
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between IF Brommapojkarna and Gais?
From 6 meetings on record, IF Brommapojkarna have won 2, Gais have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did IF Brommapojkarna and Gais last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Gais 4-0 IF Brommapojkarna.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
IF Brommapojkarna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Gais are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — IF Brommapojkarna 50%, Gais 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for IF Brommapojkarna and 67% for Gais. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IF Brommapojkarna have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = IF Brommapojkarna home games / Gais away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when IF Brommapojkarna play Gais?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of IF Brommapojkarna's games and 67% of Gais's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is IF Brommapojkarna vs Gais usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of IF Brommapojkarna's matches and 67% of Gais's.
Do IF Brommapojkarna and Gais tend to score early?
IF Brommapojkarna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Gais in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IF Brommapojkarna and Gais share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Grimsta IP, Regular Season - 11, as IF Brommapojkarna and Gais drew 1-1 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting IF Brommapojkarna 1.41 xG and Gais 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of IF Brommapojkarna attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Gais attack 0.85 / defence 0.94, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it IF Brommapojkarna 40% | Draw 27% | Gais 33%, with IF Brommapojkarna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (IF Brommapojkarna 55%, Gais 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
IF Brommapojkarna's trading profile (40 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Gais's trading profile (40 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Gais arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. IF Brommapojkarna (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.