Hammarby FF 0-2 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tele2 Arena plays host to Hammarby FF versus IFK Varnamo in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hammarby FF have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Hammarby FF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
IFK Varnamo's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Varnamo have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Hammarby FF, 1.80 for IFK Varnamo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Hammarby FF 0W, IFK Varnamo 2W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Jul 2022, ended 1–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Hammarby FF half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 53% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 57% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.67 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.101 / defence 1.027 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.874 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.147. Data: 40 Hammarby FF games / 39 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 23%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | IFK Varnamo 4.35. Hammarby FF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Hammarby FF as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 60% | IFK Varnamo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 29 May 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Hammarby FF 1.67 / IFK Varnamo 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.101 / def 1.027 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.874 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IFK Varnamo xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 29 May 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Hammarby FF 0 - 2 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 52% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 23% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (2 meetings): Hammarby FF 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 2W.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hammarby FF's attack rating (1.10) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.87x) against Hammarby FF's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
52%
1.93
25%
3.94
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.70
1.03
IFK Varnamo xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
4%
23.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 11.6 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.03 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 31W 16D 13L from 60 games, a 1.82 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 15D 18L across 60 games — 1.60 PPG, with L-W-D-D-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for Hammarby FF against 1.60 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 20W 8D 2L from 30 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.82 PPG overall — Hammarby FF are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 11W 7D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.30 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 31W 16D 13L in their last 60 games (1.82 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 15D 18L in their last 60 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.27 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 27 July 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Hammarby FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hammarby FF won 0-3 on 17 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hammarby FF have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Hammarby FF
1
Draws
4
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
From 8 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 3, IFK Varnamo have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 27 July 2025, when IFK Varnamo 2-3 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 60%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Hammarby FF and 57% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; IFK Varnamo in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Varnamo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Hammarby FF's games and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Hammarby FF's matches and 57% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
IFK Varnamo cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hammarby FF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
IFK Varnamo beat Hammarby FF 0-2 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.67 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.03 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hammarby FF fell 1.7 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo outscored their 1.03 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.10 / defence 1.03 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.87 / defence 0.93, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 52% | Draw 25% | IFK Varnamo 23%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a IFK Varnamo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 57%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.82 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the IFK Varnamo win broke the near-deadlock. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.