Hammarby FF 1-1 IFK Goteborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hammarby FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Allsvenskan encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees IFK Goteborg travel to Tele2 Arena to take on Hammarby FF. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 July 2020, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hammarby FF stand at 3W 2D 3L from 8 Allsvenskan matches — 1.38 PPG. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.25 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets in 8 games (38%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Hammarby FF have posted 2W 1D 1L at Tele2 Arena — 1.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 4 home games (75%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, IFK Goteborg have recorded 2W 3D 3L from 8 outings — 1.12 PPG. Last five: D W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for IFK Goteborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, IFK Goteborg have posted 1W 1D 1L from 3 away outings — 1.33 PPG. Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Hammarby FF 1.38 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.12 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Hammarby FF in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Goteborg in-play tendencies (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 38% versus IFK Goteborg 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 50% | IFK Goteborg 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 1.10 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 0.777 / defence 0.911 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / defence 1.313. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.113. Hammarby FF's attack strength of 0.777 is below the league average — the 1.10 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. IFK Goteborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.313 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 8 Hammarby FF games / 8 IFK Goteborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | IFK Goteborg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hammarby FF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Hammarby FF 0% | IFK Goteborg 100%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 Jul 2020, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Hammarby FF 1.10 / IFK Goteborg 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 0.777 / def 0.911 | IFK Goteborg attack 1.016 / def 1.313 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.113 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kick off?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 20 July 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF 1 - 1 IFK Goteborg.
Where is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg part of?
Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 37% chance of winning, IFK Goteborg a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 3W-2D-3L in 8 | 1.38 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.25 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. IFK Goteborg (all comps): 2W-3D-3L in 8 | 1.12 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Hammarby FF's attacking strength (0.78x league average) is weighed against IFK Goteborg's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Goteborg's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.36
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
2.13
1.03
IFK Goteborg xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
11%
8.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.3 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 1.03 for IFK Goteborg, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 3W 2D 3L from 8 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IFK Goteborg, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 3L across 8 games — 1.12 PPG, with D-W-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for IFK Goteborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hammarby FF on 1.38 PPG, IFK Goteborg on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Goteborg's away record stands at 1W 1D 1L across 3 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; IFK Goteborg are on 1.25 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: IFK Goteborg in 75%.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
IFK Goteborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 3W 2D 3L in their last 8 games (1.38 PPG), while IFK Goteborg have gone 2W 3D 3L in their last 8 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or IFK Goteborg away?
Hammarby FF's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 1.33 PPG; IFK Goteborg away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or IFK Goteborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, IFK Goteborg in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Hammarby FF have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Mar 2025, when Hammarby FF won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting IFK Goteborg specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
1
IFK Goteborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, IFK Goteborg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when IFK Goteborg 0-1 Hammarby FF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hammarby FF see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
IFK Goteborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 0%, IFK Goteborg 100% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 0% (Hammarby FF) and 100% (IFK Goteborg).
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Hammarby FF have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / IFK Goteborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play IFK Goteborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 100% of IFK Goteborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs IFK Goteborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Hammarby FF's recent games and 100% of IFK Goteborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 33% of their recent matches, IFK Goteborg in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF and IFK Goteborg finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 1.10 xG and IFK Goteborg 1.03 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 0.78 / defence 0.91 against IFK Goteborg attack 1.02 / defence 1.31, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 37% | Draw 30% | IFK Goteborg 33%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 50%, IFK Goteborg 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
IFK Goteborg's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hammarby FF 1.38 PPG, IFK Goteborg 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. IFK Goteborg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.