Hammarby FF 5-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Hammarby FF (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hammarby FF face Degerfors IF.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hammarby FF host Degerfors IF at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022 at 18:10 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Hammarby FF have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Hammarby FF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hammarby FF's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Tele2 Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Degerfors IF stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Hammarby FF carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
Hammarby FF hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 3 previous encounters compared to 0 for Degerfors IF, with 0 draws in between.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Hammarby FF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Hammarby FF and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Hammarby FF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hammarby FF 50% versus Degerfors IF 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hammarby FF 56% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hammarby FF 2.43 xG and Degerfors IF 0.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hammarby FF attack 1.301 / defence 0.849 | Degerfors IF attack 0.714 / defence 1.299. League average goals — home 1.441 / away 1.140. Hammarby FF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.43 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.299 — this is suppressing Hammarby FF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Hammarby FF games / 48 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hammarby FF 75% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 8%. Fair-value odds: Hammarby FF 1.33 | Draw 5.88 | Degerfors IF 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Hammarby FF (75%) — a 67pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Hammarby FF at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hammarby FF 40% | Degerfors IF 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 18:10 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hammarby FF 75% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 46% | xG Hammarby FF 2.43 / Degerfors IF 0.69 • Poisson strength factors: Hammarby FF attack 1.301 / def 0.849 | Degerfors IF attack 0.714 / def 1.299 | league avg home 1.441 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Hammarby FF (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.43
Hammarby FF xG
Expected Goals
0.69
Degerfors IF xG
46%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 18:10 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF 5 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF part of?
Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Hammarby FF a 75% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 8% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Hammarby FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): Hammarby FF 3W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 0W.
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in?
Hammarby FF (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Hammarby FF's attack at 1.30x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 2.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus Hammarby FF's defence, projects 0.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hammarby FF Win
75%
1.33
17%
6.04
8%
12.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.43
Hammarby FF xG
Total xG
3.12
0.69
Degerfors IF xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.04
17%
Draw
12.35
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
50%
2.00
9%
11.39
Win to Nil
38%
2.65
1%
140.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 10.7 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 6.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 2.43 expected goals for Hammarby FF and 0.69 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Hammarby FF's recent record stands at 26W 11D 11L from 48 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Hammarby FF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 13W 7D 28L across 48 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hammarby FF by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Hammarby FF have managed 16W 6D 2L from 24 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 4W 3D 17L across 24 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hammarby FF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hammarby FF are averaging 1.85 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.00 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Defensively: Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hammarby FF
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Hammarby FF have gone 26W 11D 11L in their last 48 games (1.85 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 13W 7D 28L in their last 48 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hammarby FF at home or Degerfors IF away?
Hammarby FF's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hammarby FF at home: 2.25 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Hammarby FF or Degerfors IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hammarby FF have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Degerfors IF in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 19 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2021, when Hammarby FF won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hammarby FF's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Hammarby FF
2
Draws
0
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Hammarby FF have won 7, Degerfors IF have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 19 July 2026, when Hammarby FF 4-0 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF?
Hammarby FF have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hammarby FF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hammarby FF 58%, Degerfors IF 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Hammarby FF) and 46% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hammarby FF keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Degerfors IF in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hammarby FF home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hammarby FF play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Hammarby FF's recent matches and 42% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hammarby FF vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Hammarby FF's matches and 46% of Degerfors IF's.
Do Hammarby FF and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Hammarby FF have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Hammarby FF run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hammarby FF beat Degerfors IF 5-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hammarby FF 2.43 xG and Degerfors IF 0.69 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Hammarby FF beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hammarby FF attack 1.30 / defence 0.85 against Degerfors IF attack 0.71 / defence 1.30, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hammarby FF 75% | Draw 17% | Degerfors IF 8%, with Hammarby FF to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hammarby FF 56%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hammarby FF's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Hammarby FF arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Hammarby FF (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.29 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.