Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Degerfors IF at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Halmstad vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Örjans Vall plays host to Halmstad versus Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 12 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Halmstad's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Halmstad's home record at Örjans Vall: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Örjans Vall. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Örjans Vall this season.
Degerfors IF (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Halmstad, 1.50 for Degerfors IF — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Halmstad lead 1W to 3W over the last 6 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2025, ended 1–0 with Halmstad winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Halmstad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Degerfors IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Halmstad 38% versus Degerfors IF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Halmstad 48% | Degerfors IF 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Halmstad 1.23 xG and Degerfors IF 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Halmstad attack 0.934 / defence 1.002 | Degerfors IF attack 1.055 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.258 / away 1.398. Data: 31 Halmstad games / 31 Degerfors IF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 43%. Fair-value odds: Halmstad 3.23 | Draw 3.85 | Degerfors IF 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Degerfors IF as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Halmstad 20% | Degerfors IF 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Halmstad vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Örjans Vall • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Halmstad 1.23 / Degerfors IF 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Halmstad attack 0.934 / def 1.002 | Degerfors IF attack 1.055 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.258 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Halmstad xG
Expected Goals
1.48
Degerfors IF xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kick off?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at Örjans Vall.
What was the final score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Halmstad 0 - 3 Degerfors IF.
Where is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Örjans Vall.
What competition is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF part of?
Halmstad vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives Halmstad a 31% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Halmstad and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will Halmstad vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Record (6 meetings): Halmstad 1W | Draws 2 | Degerfors IF 3W.
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in?
Halmstad (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Halmstad's attack at 0.93x the league average against Degerfors IF's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Degerfors IF's attack (1.05x) against Halmstad's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.48.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
31%
3.18
26%
3.91
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Halmstad xG
Total xG
2.71
1.48
Degerfors IF xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
7%
13.96
13%
7.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.9 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Halmstad and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Halmstad and 1.48 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Halmstad vs Degerfors IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Halmstad's recent record stands at 20W 8D 32L from 60 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five.
Degerfors IF, meanwhile, have gone 23W 16D 21L across 60 games — 1.42 PPG, with D-L-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.13 PPG for Halmstad against 1.42 for Degerfors IF. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Halmstad have managed 12W 5D 13L from 30 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Degerfors IF's away record stands at 13W 8D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Halmstad are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.38 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF in 60%.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Halmstad
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Halmstad and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
Halmstad have gone 20W 8D 32L in their last 60 games (1.13 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Halmstad at home or Degerfors IF away?
Degerfors IF's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Halmstad at home: 1.37 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 0-5 on 30 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Halmstad have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Halmstad
2
Draws
4
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
From 7 meetings on record, Halmstad have won 1, Degerfors IF have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Halmstad and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Halmstad 0-3 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Halmstad and Degerfors IF?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Halmstad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Halmstad 33%, Degerfors IF 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Halmstad) and 60% (Degerfors IF).
On the defensive side: Halmstad keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Halmstad have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Halmstad home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Halmstad play Degerfors IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Halmstad's recent matches and 67% of Degerfors IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Halmstad vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Halmstad's recent games and 60% of Degerfors IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Halmstad and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
Halmstad have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Halmstad.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Halmstad 0-3 at Örjans Vall, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Halmstad 1.23 xG and Degerfors IF 1.48 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Halmstad fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 1.48 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Halmstad attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Degerfors IF attack 1.05 / defence 1.04, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Halmstad 31% | Draw 26% | Degerfors IF 43%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Halmstad 48%, Degerfors IF 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Halmstad's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Halmstad 1.13 PPG, Degerfors IF 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Halmstad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.