GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Helsingborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates GIF Sundsvall at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
NP3 Arena plays host to GIF Sundsvall versus Helsingborg in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 21 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 3W 1D 6L at NP3 Arena — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Helsingborg's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Helsingborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helsingborg away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for GIF Sundsvall, 0.60 for Helsingborg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — GIF Sundsvall register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Helsingborg in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for GIF Sundsvall, 1 for Helsingborg and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Jul 2022, ended 0–1 with Helsingborg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
GIF Sundsvall goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Helsingborg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — GIF Sundsvall 56% versus Helsingborg 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (GIF Sundsvall 48% | Helsingborg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects GIF Sundsvall 1.68 xG and Helsingborg 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.909 / defence 1.796 | Helsingborg attack 0.691 / defence 1.267. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.125. Helsingborg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.267 — this is suppressing GIF Sundsvall's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 18 GIF Sundsvall games / 18 Helsingborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 31%. Fair-value odds: GIF Sundsvall 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | Helsingborg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates GIF Sundsvall as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on GIF Sundsvall if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: GIF Sundsvall 70% | Helsingborg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: NP3 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG GIF Sundsvall 1.68 / Helsingborg 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: GIF Sundsvall attack 0.909 / def 1.796 | Helsingborg attack 0.691 / def 1.267 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.125 • Poisson stance: GIF Sundsvall (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Helsingborg xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kick off?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 21 August 2022 at NP3 Arena.
What was the final score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
GIF Sundsvall 1 - 2 Helsingborg.
Where is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg being played?
The match is being played at NP3 Arena.
What competition is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg part of?
GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our statistical model gives GIF Sundsvall a 43% chance of winning, Helsingborg a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making GIF Sundsvall the favourite.
Will both teams score in GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg will score (BTTS).
Will GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Record (2 meetings): GIF Sundsvall 1W | Draws 0 | Helsingborg 1W.
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in?
GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Helsingborg (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from GIF Sundsvall's attack rating (0.91) and Helsingborg's defence rating (1.27), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Helsingborg's attack (0.69x) against GIF Sundsvall's defence (1.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
GIF Sundsvall Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.79
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
GIF Sundsvall xG
Total xG
3.08
1.40
Helsingborg xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
25%
4.03
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
6%
17.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.4 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.8 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.1 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for GIF Sundsvall and 1.40 for Helsingborg, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
GIF Sundsvall come into this having played 48 games, going 18W 9D 21L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Helsingborg sit at 1.21 PPG from 48 outings (15W 13D 20L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Helsingborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.31 PPG for GIF Sundsvall against 1.21 for Helsingborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
GIF Sundsvall's home form reads 12W 3D 8L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Helsingborg have taken 1.22 points per game from 23 outings (7W 7D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, GIF Sundsvall come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
GIF Sundsvall are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Helsingborg are on 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Helsingborg in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
Helsingborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg in coming into this match?
GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 21L in their last 48 games (1.31 PPG), while Helsingborg have gone 15W 13D 20L in their last 48 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — GIF Sundsvall at home or Helsingborg away?
GIF Sundsvall's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — GIF Sundsvall at home: 1.70 PPG; Helsingborg away: 1.22 PPG.
Have GIF Sundsvall or Helsingborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
GIF Sundsvall have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Helsingborg in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Superettan, Allsvenskan all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 21 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Helsingborg won 5-2 on 21 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, GIF Sundsvall have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Helsingborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
GIF Sundsvall
2
Draws
6
Helsingborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
From 10 meetings on record, GIF Sundsvall have won 2, Helsingborg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg last play each other?
They last met on 21 June 2026, when Helsingborg 5-2 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg?
Helsingborg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Helsingborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — GIF Sundsvall 52%, Helsingborg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (GIF Sundsvall) and 61% (Helsingborg).
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Helsingborg in 35%; Helsingborg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = GIF Sundsvall home games / Helsingborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when GIF Sundsvall play Helsingborg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of GIF Sundsvall's recent matches and 52% of Helsingborg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is GIF Sundsvall vs Helsingborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of GIF Sundsvall's recent games and 61% of Helsingborg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do GIF Sundsvall and Helsingborg tend to score early?
GIF Sundsvall have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Helsingborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Helsingborg defy the odds to beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Helsingborg beat GIF Sundsvall 1-2 at NP3 Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting GIF Sundsvall 1.68 xG and Helsingborg 1.40 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of GIF Sundsvall attack 0.91 / defence 1.80 against Helsingborg attack 0.69 / defence 1.27, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it GIF Sundsvall 43% | Draw 26% | Helsingborg 31%, with GIF Sundsvall to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Helsingborg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (GIF Sundsvall 48%, Helsingborg 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Helsingborg's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — GIF Sundsvall 1.31 PPG, Helsingborg 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Helsingborg win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.