Djurgardens IF 0-0 Mjallby AIF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF meet at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Monday 23 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Djurgardens IF (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF at Tele2 Arena this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena.
Mjallby AIF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 0W 4D 6L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Mjallby AIF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mjallby AIF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form ledger tips toward Djurgardens IF. A 1.70 PPG lead over Mjallby AIF (2.10 vs 0.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Djurgardens IF lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Djurgardens IF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Mjallby AIF goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 49% versus Mjallby AIF 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 56% | Mjallby AIF 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.23 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.278 / defence 1.043 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.020 / defence 1.225. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.112. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 2.23 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mjallby AIF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.225 — this is suppressing Djurgardens IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Djurgardens IF games / 45 Mjallby AIF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 59% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 18%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Mjallby AIF 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.23 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.41 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 40% | Mjallby AIF 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Monday 23 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 59% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 63% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.23 / Mjallby AIF 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.278 / def 1.043 | Mjallby AIF attack 1.020 / def 1.225 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.112 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.23
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
63%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 23 August 2021 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF 0 - 0 Mjallby AIF.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF part of?
Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 59% chance of winning, Mjallby AIF a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Record (1 meetings): Djurgardens IF 1W | Draws 0 | Mjallby AIF 0W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Mjallby AIF (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Djurgardens IF's attack at 1.28x the league average against Mjallby AIF's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mjallby AIF's attack (1.02x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.39
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
2 – 0
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.23
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
3.41
1.18
Mjallby AIF xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.39
23%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
11%
9.26
Win to Nil
18%
5.49
2%
52.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 8.7 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF expected to score?
The model projects 2.23 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.18 for Mjallby AIF, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 45 games, going 24W 9D 12L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Mjallby AIF sit at 1.29 PPG from 45 outings (15W 13D 17L), a run that reads L-L-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Mjallby AIF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 13W 5D 5L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Mjallby AIF have taken 0.96 points per game from 23 outings (5W 7D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mjallby AIF are on 1.31 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
Mjallby AIF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Mjallby AIF have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or Mjallby AIF away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.91 PPG; Mjallby AIF away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or Mjallby AIF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Mjallby AIF in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 17 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mjallby AIF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
3
Draws
3
Mjallby AIF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, Mjallby AIF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2025, when Mjallby AIF 1-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Mjallby AIF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 56%, Mjallby AIF 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Djurgardens IF) and 52% (Mjallby AIF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Mjallby AIF in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / Mjallby AIF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play Mjallby AIF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Djurgardens IF's games and 61% of Mjallby AIF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs Mjallby AIF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 52% of Mjallby AIF's.
Do Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Mjallby AIF in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Djurgardens IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Djurgardens IF and Mjallby AIF drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.23 xG and Mjallby AIF 1.18 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Djurgardens IF fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Mjallby AIF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.28 / defence 1.04 against Mjallby AIF attack 1.02 / defence 1.23, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 59% | Draw 23% | Mjallby AIF 18%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 56%, Mjallby AIF 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (45 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mjallby AIF's trading profile (45 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Mjallby AIF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.