Djurgardens IF 1-1 IF Elfsborg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
IF Elfsborg make the trip to Tele2 Arena to face Djurgardens IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2020 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Djurgardens IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 4W 3D 2L at Tele2 Arena — 1.67 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IF Elfsborg have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W W D L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IF Elfsborg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IF Elfsborg away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.90 for IF Elfsborg. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games).
IF Elfsborg — key trading statistics (18 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 50% versus IF Elfsborg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 67% | IF Elfsborg 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.51 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.159 / defence 1.077 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.958 / defence 1.128. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.415. Data: 18 Djurgardens IF games / 18 IF Elfsborg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | IF Elfsborg 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Djurgardens IF 67% | IF Elfsborg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2020, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.51 / IF Elfsborg 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.159 / def 1.077 | IF Elfsborg attack 0.958 / def 1.128 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.415 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 12 September 2020 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 1 IF Elfsborg.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg part of?
Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 38% chance of winning, IF Elfsborg a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. IF Elfsborg (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Djurgardens IF's attack rating (1.16) and IF Elfsborg's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IF Elfsborg's attack (0.96x) against Djurgardens IF's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 18/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
38%
2.63
27%
3.77
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.97
1.46
IF Elfsborg xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.33
8%
12.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 7.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 11.3 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.6 | 6.2 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.46 for IF Elfsborg, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 18 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 9W 3D 6L record — L-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
IF Elfsborg's form line: 8W 8D 2L from 18 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-D. The sample for IF Elfsborg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Djurgardens IF against 1.78 for IF Elfsborg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 1.67 PPG from 9 outings (4W 3D 2L).
On the road, IF Elfsborg have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away games — 1.78 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; IF Elfsborg are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 18 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
IF Elfsborg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 9W 3D 6L in their last 18 games (1.67 PPG), while IF Elfsborg have gone 8W 8D 2L in their last 18 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or IF Elfsborg away?
IF Elfsborg's away record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.67 PPG; IF Elfsborg away: 1.78 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or IF Elfsborg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, IF Elfsborg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: IF Elfsborg won 0-4 on 22 Jul 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Djurgardens IF have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against IF Elfsborg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
4
IF Elfsborg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 4, IF Elfsborg have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when IF Elfsborg 2-1 Djurgardens IF.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
IF Elfsborg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 67%, IF Elfsborg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Djurgardens IF and 56% for IF Elfsborg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; IF Elfsborg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / IF Elfsborg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play IF Elfsborg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Djurgardens IF's games and 56% of IF Elfsborg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Djurgardens IF vs IF Elfsborg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 56% of IF Elfsborg's.
Do Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, IF Elfsborg in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF and IF Elfsborg finished level at 1-1 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 1.51 xG and IF Elfsborg 1.46 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.16 / defence 1.08 against IF Elfsborg attack 0.96 / defence 1.13, drawn from 18/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 38% | Draw 27% | IF Elfsborg 35%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 67%, IF Elfsborg 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
IF Elfsborg's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.67 PPG, IF Elfsborg 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.