Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 30 as Djurgardens IF welcome BK Hacken to 3Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Djurgardens IF have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at 3Arena this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.60 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at 3Arena this season.
BK Hacken — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
BK Hacken's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 2.10 (BK Hacken). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Djurgardens IF have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while BK Hacken have managed just 2 wins.
The 10 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Jul 2026, ended 4–2 with Djurgardens IF winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Djurgardens IF and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Djurgardens IF trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BK Hacken trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 47% versus BK Hacken 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 46% | BK Hacken 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 1.26 xG and BK Hacken 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.332 / defence 1.012 | BK Hacken attack 1.110 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.298. Djurgardens IF carry an above-average attack strength of 1.332 — their λ of 1.26 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. BK Hacken's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 57 Djurgardens IF games / 57 BK Hacken games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 33% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 42%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | BK Hacken 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on BK Hacken offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Djurgardens IF 60% | BK Hacken 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: 3Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 33% | Draw 26% | BK Hacken 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Djurgardens IF 1.26 / BK Hacken 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.332 / def 1.012 | BK Hacken attack 1.110 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.343 / away 1.298 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
1.46
BK Hacken xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 3Arena.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken being played?
The match is being played at 3Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken part of?
Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 33% chance of winning, BK Hacken a 42% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Record (10 meetings): Djurgardens IF 6W | Draws 2 | BK Hacken 2W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against BK Hacken's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.26. The same calculation in reverse, BK Hacken's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
33%
3.05
26%
3.91
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.72
1.46
BK Hacken xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
8%
13.10
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.1 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.7 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 1.46 for BK Hacken, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Djurgardens IF come into this having played 57 games, going 29W 14D 14L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, BK Hacken sit at 1.47 PPG from 57 outings (22W 18D 17L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.77 PPG, BK Hacken on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Djurgardens IF's home form reads 13W 9D 6L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, BK Hacken have taken 1.50 points per game from 28 outings (11W 9D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; BK Hacken are on 1.58 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; BK Hacken in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Blended
BK Hacken
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 29W 14D 14L in their last 57 games (1.77 PPG), while BK Hacken have gone 22W 18D 17L in their last 57 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or BK Hacken away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 1.71 PPG; BK Hacken away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or BK Hacken been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, BK Hacken in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 6 July 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Djurgardens IF have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Jul 2025, when Djurgardens IF won 1-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting BK Hacken specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
2
BK Hacken
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 6, BK Hacken have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2026, when BK Hacken 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 61%, BK Hacken 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Djurgardens IF) and 43% (BK Hacken).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; BK Hacken in 43%; BK Hacken in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / BK Hacken away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play BK Hacken?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 36% of BK Hacken's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs BK Hacken usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Djurgardens IF's recent games and 43% of BK Hacken's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Djurgardens IF and BK Hacken tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, BK Hacken in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.