Djurgardens IF 1-0 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Djurgardens IF at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Djurgardens IF host AIK Stockholm at Tele2 Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Djurgardens IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Djurgardens IF have posted 7W 0D 3L at Tele2 Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tele2 Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Djurgardens IF are significantly better at Tele2 Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
AIK Stockholm's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Djurgardens IF) versus 1.40 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
AIK Stockholm have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 3 encounters against Djurgardens IF's 0 victories.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 1–2 with AIK Stockholm winning.
It is worth noting that AIK Stockholm have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Djurgardens IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
AIK Stockholm in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Djurgardens IF 38% versus AIK Stockholm 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Djurgardens IF 52% | AIK Stockholm 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Djurgardens IF 2.05 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Djurgardens IF attack 1.237 / defence 0.677 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.807 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 1.180. Djurgardens IF's defence rating of 0.677 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 Djurgardens IF games / 39 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 70% | Draw 20% | AIK Stockholm 10%. Fair-value odds: Djurgardens IF 1.43 | Draw 5.00 | AIK Stockholm 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Djurgardens IF (70%) — a 60pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Djurgardens IF 30% | AIK Stockholm 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Tele2 Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Djurgardens IF 70% | Draw 20% | AIK Stockholm 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 42% | xG Djurgardens IF 2.05 / AIK Stockholm 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Djurgardens IF attack 1.237 / def 0.677 | AIK Stockholm attack 0.807 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.607 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Djurgardens IF xG
Expected Goals
0.65
AIK Stockholm xG
42%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 28 May 2023 at Tele2 Arena.
What was the final score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Djurgardens IF 1 - 0 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Tele2 Arena.
What competition is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Djurgardens IF a 70% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 10% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (3 meetings): Djurgardens IF 0W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 3W.
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Djurgardens IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Djurgardens IF's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against AIK Stockholm's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Djurgardens IF's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
70%
1.43
20%
4.91
10%
10.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Djurgardens IF xG
Total xG
2.70
0.65
AIK Stockholm xG
1.43
70%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
10.07
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
37%
2.73
1%
78.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 9.2 | 3.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Djurgardens IF and 0.65 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Djurgardens IF have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 34W 12D 14L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
AIK Stockholm's form line: 32W 13D 15L from 60 games, 1.82 PPG, last five W-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Djurgardens IF on 1.90 PPG, AIK Stockholm on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Djurgardens IF have posted 2.20 PPG from 30 outings (21W 3D 6L).
On the road, AIK Stockholm have gone 11W 7D 12L from 30 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Djurgardens IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Djurgardens IF are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; AIK Stockholm in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Djurgardens IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Djurgardens IF have gone 34W 12D 14L in their last 60 games (1.90 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 32W 13D 15L in their last 60 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Djurgardens IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Djurgardens IF's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Djurgardens IF at home: 2.20 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Djurgardens IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Djurgardens IF have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 10 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Djurgardens IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Djurgardens IF
2
Draws
6
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 10 meetings on record, Djurgardens IF have won 2, AIK Stockholm have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when AIK Stockholm 2-4 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
AIK Stockholm are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Djurgardens IF 47%, AIK Stockholm 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for Djurgardens IF and 47% for AIK Stockholm. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; AIK Stockholm in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Djurgardens IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Djurgardens IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Djurgardens IF's recent matches and 57% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Djurgardens IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of Djurgardens IF's matches and 47% of AIK Stockholm's.
Do Djurgardens IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Djurgardens IF have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Djurgardens IF edge out AIK Stockholm 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Djurgardens IF beat AIK Stockholm 1-0 at Tele2 Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Djurgardens IF 2.05 xG and AIK Stockholm 0.65 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Djurgardens IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Djurgardens IF attack 1.24 / defence 0.68 against AIK Stockholm attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 40/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Djurgardens IF 70% | Draw 20% | AIK Stockholm 10%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Djurgardens IF 52%, AIK Stockholm 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Djurgardens IF 1.90 PPG, AIK Stockholm 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Djurgardens IF win broke the near-deadlock. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line. AIK Stockholm (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.