Degerfors IF 0-1 Kalmar FF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kalmar FF at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Behrn Arena plays host to Degerfors IF versus Kalmar FF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Sunday 18 April 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kalmar FF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, Kalmar FF have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 1.037 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.074. Data: 1 Degerfors IF games / 31 Kalmar FF games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 37%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.45 | Draw 2.94 | Kalmar FF 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Kalmar FF as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Kalmar FF if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Behrn Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Apr 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Degerfors IF 1.12 / Kalmar FF 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Kalmar FF attack 1.037 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Kalmar FF (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Kalmar FF xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 18 April 2021 at Behrn Arena.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Degerfors IF 0 - 1 Kalmar FF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF being played?
The match is being played at Behrn Arena.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 29% chance of winning, Kalmar FF a 37% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Kalmar FF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF in?
Kalmar FF (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Kalmar FF away split: 1.80 PPG from 10 | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.86) and Kalmar FF's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kalmar FF's attack (1.04x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
The sample (1/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kalmar FF Win
29%
3.45
34%
2.92
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.40
1.28
Kalmar FF xG
3.45
29%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
8%
12.43
12%
8.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 13.0 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.28 for Kalmar FF, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Kalmar FF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Pre-Season
Kalmar FF
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Kalmar FF go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kalmar FF won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Kalmar FF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
6
Kalmar FF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
From 7 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 1, Kalmar FF have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Kalmar FF 2-1 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Kalmar FF?
Kalmar FF have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 7 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Kalmar FF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Kalmar FF edge out Degerfors IF 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kalmar FF beat Degerfors IF 0-1 at Behrn Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.12 xG and Kalmar FF 1.28 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Degerfors IF fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Kalmar FF attack 1.04 / defence 1.01, drawn from 1/31 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 29% | Draw 34% | Kalmar FF 37%, with Kalmar FF to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.