Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 29 as Degerfors IF welcome IFK Varnamo to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 29 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stora Valla — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, IFK Varnamo stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
IFK Varnamo's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 1.70 PPG versus IFK Varnamo's 1.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, IFK Varnamo in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for IFK Varnamo and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with IFK Varnamo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
IFK Varnamo in-play and half-time data (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus IFK Varnamo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | IFK Varnamo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.76 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.988 / defence 0.852 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.953 / defence 1.204. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.200. IFK Varnamo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.204 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Degerfors IF games / 28 IFK Varnamo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 54% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 19%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | IFK Varnamo 5.26. Degerfors IF hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Degerfors IF offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Varnamo 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 54% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 1.76 / IFK Varnamo 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.988 / def 0.852 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.953 / def 1.204 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 October 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Degerfors IF 0 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 54% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 0W | Draws 0 | IFK Varnamo 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W. IFK Varnamo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Degerfors IF's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against IFK Varnamo's defensive record (1.20x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, IFK Varnamo's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
54%
1.86
28%
3.63
19%
5.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
IFK Varnamo xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.34
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
20%
4.94
3%
30.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.97 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 17W 12D 29L from 58 games, a 1.09 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-W in the last five.
IFK Varnamo, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 17L across 58 games — 1.64 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours IFK Varnamo by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 12W 6D 11L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
IFK Varnamo's away record stands at 11W 6D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.33 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 17W 12D 29L in their last 58 games (1.09 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 27W 14D 17L in their last 58 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Varnamo away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.45 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 18 August 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Degerfors IF's record when hosting IFK Varnamo specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
3
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
From 6 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Varnamo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
They last met on 18 August 2025, when IFK Varnamo 3-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo?
IFK Varnamo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 55%, IFK Varnamo 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Degerfors IF) and 59% (IFK Varnamo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 31% of games; IFK Varnamo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Varnamo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 52% of IFK Varnamo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Varnamo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Degerfors IF's matches and 59% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, IFK Varnamo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and IFK Varnamo finished level at 0-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 29, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.76 xG and IFK Varnamo 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 1.8 short of their projected output. IFK Varnamo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.95 / defence 1.20, drawn from 58/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 54% | Draw 28% | IFK Varnamo 19%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, IFK Varnamo 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, IFK Varnamo arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.