Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates IFK Norrkoping at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stora Valla plays host to Degerfors IF versus IFK Norrkoping in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 26 July 2025 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 1W 1D 8L from 10 games (0.40 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.60 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stora Valla, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 1D 8L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
IFK Norrkoping (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for IFK Norrkoping, so this record blends games from this season and last.
IFK Norrkoping's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, IFK Norrkoping are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, IFK Norrkoping in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 2W to 3W over the last 7 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Degerfors IF half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
IFK Norrkoping half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Degerfors IF 61% and IFK Norrkoping 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 54% | IFK Norrkoping 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.94 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.597 / defence 1.525 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.153 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.221. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.597 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Degerfors IF games / 46 IFK Norrkoping games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 15% | Draw 20% | IFK Norrkoping 65%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 6.67 | Draw 5.00 | IFK Norrkoping 1.54. The model has a clear lean to IFK Norrkoping (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is IFK Norrkoping at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | IFK Norrkoping 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 15% | Draw 20% | IFK Norrkoping 65% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 54% | xG Degerfors IF 0.94 / IFK Norrkoping 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.597 / def 1.525 | IFK Norrkoping attack 1.153 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: IFK Norrkoping (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
2.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kick off?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Degerfors IF 0 - 0 IFK Norrkoping.
Where is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping part of?
Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 15% chance of winning, IFK Norrkoping a 65% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making IFK Norrkoping the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
Record (7 meetings): Degerfors IF 2W | Draws 2 | IFK Norrkoping 3W.
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. IFK Norrkoping (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.60) and IFK Norrkoping's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Norrkoping's attack (1.15x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.52x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 16/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.4%), 1-2 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
IFK Norrkoping Win
15%
6.53
20%
5.11
65%
1.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.08
2.15
IFK Norrkoping xG
6.53
15%
Home win
5.11
20%
Draw
1.54
65%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
12%
8.57
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
2%
55.96
26%
3.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.8 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 |
| 1 | 4.3 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 2.15 for IFK Norrkoping, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Degerfors IF come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 11D 16L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, IFK Norrkoping sit at 1.13 PPG from 46 outings (14W 10D 22L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for IFK Norrkoping is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Degerfors IF against 1.13 for IFK Norrkoping. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Degerfors IF's home form reads 9W 4D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, IFK Norrkoping have taken 1.00 points per game from 22 outings (5W 7D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Degerfors IF come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; IFK Norrkoping are on 1.33 scored and 1.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Degerfors IF have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; IFK Norrkoping in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
IFK Norrkoping
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 19W 11D 16L in their last 46 games (1.48 PPG), while IFK Norrkoping have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or IFK Norrkoping away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.41 PPG; IFK Norrkoping away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since May 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Degerfors IF won 4-1 on 28 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against IFK Norrkoping — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Degerfors IF
3
Draws
3
IFK Norrkoping
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
From 8 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 2, IFK Norrkoping have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2025, when Degerfors IF 0-0 IFK Norrkoping.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping?
IFK Norrkoping have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
IFK Norrkoping are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Degerfors IF, 82% for IFK Norrkoping — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Degerfors IF and 64% for IFK Norrkoping. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / IFK Norrkoping away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play IFK Norrkoping?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Degerfors IF's games and 82% of IFK Norrkoping's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs IFK Norrkoping usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Degerfors IF's matches and 64% of IFK Norrkoping's.
Do Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, IFK Norrkoping in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Degerfors IF's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 17, as Degerfors IF and IFK Norrkoping drew 0-0 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.94 xG and IFK Norrkoping 2.15 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Degerfors IF fell 0.9 short of their projected output. IFK Norrkoping landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.60 / defence 1.52 against IFK Norrkoping attack 1.15 / defence 1.11, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 15% | Draw 20% | IFK Norrkoping 65%, with IFK Norrkoping to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 54%, IFK Norrkoping 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Norrkoping's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 1.48 PPG, IFK Norrkoping 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Norrkoping (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.