Degerfors IF 3-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Degerfors IF at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 20 as Degerfors IF welcome GIF Sundsvall to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF at Stora Valla this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Degerfors IF are significantly better at Stora Valla than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, GIF Sundsvall stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
GIF Sundsvall's away record: 0W 1D 9L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Degerfors IF at 0.60 PPG versus GIF Sundsvall's 0.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Degerfors IF register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, GIF Sundsvall in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Degerfors IF have won 1, GIF Sundsvall 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 3–2 with Degerfors IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Degerfors IF trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
GIF Sundsvall trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 51% versus GIF Sundsvall 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | GIF Sundsvall 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.73 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / defence 1.160 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.655 / defence 1.414. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.143. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.414 — this is suppressing Degerfors IF's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Degerfors IF games / 19 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 57% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 18%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | GIF Sundsvall 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Degerfors IF (57%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Degerfors IF at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Degerfors IF 70% | GIF Sundsvall 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 57% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG Degerfors IF 1.73 / GIF Sundsvall 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.829 / def 1.160 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.655 / def 1.414 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.143 • Poisson stance: Degerfors IF (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
0.87
GIF Sundsvall xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Degerfors IF 3 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 57% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 18% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Degerfors IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.83) and GIF Sundsvall's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, GIF Sundsvall's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Degerfors IF Win
57%
1.76
25%
3.97
18%
5.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.60
0.87
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.76
57%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
5.59
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
18%
5.63
Win to Nil
24%
4.18
3%
31.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.9 | 11.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.4 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 0.87 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Degerfors IF have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 13W 7D 29L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
GIF Sundsvall's form line: 18W 9D 22L from 49 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-L. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Degerfors IF on 0.94 PPG, GIF Sundsvall on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Degerfors IF have posted 1.29 PPG from 24 outings (9W 4D 11L).
On the road, GIF Sundsvall have gone 6W 5D 13L from 24 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.31 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 13W 7D 29L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 18W 9D 22L in their last 49 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.29 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Allsvenskan, Superettan all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 October 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Degerfors IF have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting GIF Sundsvall specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Degerfors IF
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
From 4 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 4, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2024, when GIF Sundsvall 1-2 Degerfors IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall?
Degerfors IF have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 58%, GIF Sundsvall 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Degerfors IF) and 46% (GIF Sundsvall).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 29% of games; GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Degerfors IF's games and 58% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Degerfors IF vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 46% of GIF Sundsvall's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat GIF Sundsvall 3-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 20, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.73 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.87 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.66 / defence 1.41, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 57% | Draw 25% | GIF Sundsvall 18%, with Degerfors IF to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, GIF Sundsvall 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Degerfors IF 0.94 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Degerfors IF win broke the near-deadlock. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.