Degerfors IF 3-0 Djurgardens IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Djurgardens IF at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Djurgardens IF make the trip to Stora Valla to face Degerfors IF in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 1 October 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Degerfors IF's overall Allsvenskan record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Degerfors IF have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stora Valla — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Djurgardens IF have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Djurgardens IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Djurgardens IF's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Djurgardens IF arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Degerfors IF lead 1W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Apr 2022, ended 1–3 with Djurgardens IF winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Degerfors IF — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Djurgardens IF — key trading statistics (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 53% versus Djurgardens IF 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 53% | Djurgardens IF 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 0.86 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.862 / defence 1.070 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.979 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.153. Djurgardens IF's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 53 Degerfors IF games / 53 Djurgardens IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 42%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | Djurgardens IF 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Djurgardens IF as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Djurgardens IF if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.07 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 60% | Djurgardens IF 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 42% | xG Degerfors IF 0.86 / Djurgardens IF 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.862 / def 1.070 | Djurgardens IF attack 0.979 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Djurgardens IF (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kick off?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF kicked off at 16:30 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Degerfors IF 3 - 0 Djurgardens IF.
Where is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF part of?
Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 25% chance of winning, Djurgardens IF a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Djurgardens IF the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Record (3 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | Djurgardens IF 2W.
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Djurgardens IF (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Degerfors IF's attack at 0.86x the league average against Djurgardens IF's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.86 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Djurgardens IF's attack (0.98x) against Degerfors IF's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Djurgardens IF Win
25%
4.08
33%
3.03
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
2.07
1.21
Djurgardens IF xG
4.08
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
30%
3.34
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
7%
13.63
18%
5.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 15.3 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.21 for Djurgardens IF, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Degerfors IF's recent record stands at 14W 10D 29L from 53 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Djurgardens IF, meanwhile, have gone 31W 12D 10L across 53 games — 1.98 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Djurgardens IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Djurgardens IF by 1.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Degerfors IF heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Degerfors IF have managed 10W 5D 11L from 26 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Djurgardens IF's away record stands at 10W 9D 7L across 26 trips, a 1.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.98 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Djurgardens IF's season.
Attack vs Defence
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Djurgardens IF are on 1.74 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Djurgardens IF in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Blended
Djurgardens IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 14W 10D 29L in their last 53 games (0.98 PPG), while Djurgardens IF have gone 31W 12D 10L in their last 53 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or Djurgardens IF away?
Djurgardens IF's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.35 PPG; Djurgardens IF away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or Djurgardens IF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Djurgardens IF in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Djurgardens IF won 5-1 on 6 Jul 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Degerfors IF have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Djurgardens IF — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
1
Draws
5
Djurgardens IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, Djurgardens IF have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Degerfors IF 0-1 Djurgardens IF.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF?
Djurgardens IF have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Djurgardens IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 58%, Djurgardens IF 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Degerfors IF) and 27% (Djurgardens IF).
On the defensive side: Djurgardens IF in 42%; Degerfors IF have failed to score in 31% of games; Djurgardens IF in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / Djurgardens IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play Djurgardens IF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 31% of Djurgardens IF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs Djurgardens IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 27% of Djurgardens IF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and Djurgardens IF tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Djurgardens IF in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Degerfors IF run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Djurgardens IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF beat Djurgardens IF 3-0 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 24, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 0.86 xG and Djurgardens IF 1.21 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Degerfors IF beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Djurgardens IF landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.86 / defence 1.07 against Djurgardens IF attack 0.98 / defence 0.67, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 25% | Draw 33% | Djurgardens IF 42%, with Djurgardens IF to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a Degerfors IF win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 53%, Djurgardens IF 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Djurgardens IF's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Djurgardens IF arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Degerfors IF winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Djurgardens IF (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.