Degerfors IF 1-1 AIK Stockholm – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AIK Stockholm at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Allsvenskan clash, Regular Season - 11 as Degerfors IF welcome AIK Stockholm to Stora Valla. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 June 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Degerfors IF — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Degerfors IF's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Stora Valla this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, AIK Stockholm have recorded 6W 0D 4L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, AIK Stockholm have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Degerfors IF) versus 1.80 (AIK Stockholm). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Degerfors IF, 1 for AIK Stockholm and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2021, ended 2–1 with Degerfors IF winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Degerfors IF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
AIK Stockholm in-play and half-time data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Degerfors IF 47% versus AIK Stockholm 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Degerfors IF 57% | AIK Stockholm 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Degerfors IF 1.30 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Degerfors IF attack 0.771 / defence 1.462 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.217 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.072. Degerfors IF's attack strength of 0.771 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. AIK Stockholm have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.91 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Degerfors IF games / 41 AIK Stockholm games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 52%. Fair-value odds: Degerfors IF 3.85 | Draw 4.55 | AIK Stockholm 1.92. AIK Stockholm hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.21. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.21 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.30 / 1.91) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AIK Stockholm are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AIK Stockholm offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.21 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Degerfors IF 70% | AIK Stockholm 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stora Valla • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jun 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 62% | xG Degerfors IF 1.30 / AIK Stockholm 1.91 • Poisson strength factors: Degerfors IF attack 0.771 / def 1.462 | AIK Stockholm attack 1.217 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: AIK Stockholm (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Degerfors IF xG
Expected Goals
1.91
AIK Stockholm xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kick off?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 June 2022 at Stora Valla.
What was the final score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Degerfors IF 1 - 1 AIK Stockholm.
Where is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm being played?
The match is being played at Stora Valla.
What competition is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm part of?
Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our statistical model gives Degerfors IF a 26% chance of winning, AIK Stockholm a 52% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AIK Stockholm the favourite.
Will both teams score in Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm will score (BTTS).
Will Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
Record (2 meetings): Degerfors IF 1W | Draws 0 | AIK Stockholm 1W.
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in?
Degerfors IF (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. AIK Stockholm (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Degerfors IF's attack rating (0.77) and AIK Stockholm's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AIK Stockholm's attack versus Degerfors IF's defence, projects 1.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AIK Stockholm Win
26%
3.82
22%
4.48
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Degerfors IF xG
Total xG
3.21
1.91
AIK Stockholm xG
3.82
26%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
15%
6.73
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
4%
25.73
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 7.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 10.0 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Degerfors IF and 1.91 for AIK Stockholm, a combined total of 3.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Degerfors IF come into this having played 30 games, going 10W 4D 16L for 1.13 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, AIK Stockholm sit at 1.97 PPG from 30 outings (18W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
AIK Stockholm carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Degerfors IF's home form reads 7W 1D 7L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, AIK Stockholm have taken 1.20 points per game from 15 outings (5W 3D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.97 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AIK Stockholm's season.
The Goals Picture
Degerfors IF are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; AIK Stockholm are on 1.50 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: AIK Stockholm in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Degerfors IF
Current Season
AIK Stockholm
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm in coming into this match?
Degerfors IF have gone 10W 4D 16L in their last 30 games (1.13 PPG), while AIK Stockholm have gone 18W 5D 7L in their last 30 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Degerfors IF at home or AIK Stockholm away?
Degerfors IF's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Degerfors IF at home: 1.47 PPG; AIK Stockholm away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Degerfors IF or AIK Stockholm been keeping clean sheets recently?
Degerfors IF have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, AIK Stockholm in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Jul 2025, when AIK Stockholm won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Degerfors IF's record when hosting AIK Stockholm specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Degerfors IF
2
Draws
4
AIK Stockholm
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
From 9 meetings on record, Degerfors IF have won 3, AIK Stockholm have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Degerfors IF 2-1 AIK Stockholm.
Who has won more matches between Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm?
AIK Stockholm have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
AIK Stockholm see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Degerfors IF 53%, AIK Stockholm 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Degerfors IF) and 33% (AIK Stockholm).
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF have failed to score in 27% of games; AIK Stockholm in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Degerfors IF home games / AIK Stockholm away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Degerfors IF play AIK Stockholm?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Degerfors IF's recent matches and 47% of AIK Stockholm's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Degerfors IF vs AIK Stockholm usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Degerfors IF's recent games and 33% of AIK Stockholm's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm tend to score early?
Degerfors IF have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, AIK Stockholm in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Degerfors IF and AIK Stockholm finished level at 1-1 at Stora Valla, Regular Season - 11, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Degerfors IF 1.30 xG and AIK Stockholm 1.91 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. AIK Stockholm landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Degerfors IF attack 0.77 / defence 1.46 against AIK Stockholm attack 1.22 / defence 1.14, drawn from 40/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Degerfors IF 26% | Draw 22% | AIK Stockholm 52%, with AIK Stockholm to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Degerfors IF 57%, AIK Stockholm 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Degerfors IF's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
AIK Stockholm's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AIK Stockholm arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.