BK Hacken 3-0 Orgryte IS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host Orgryte IS at Nordic Wellness Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 October 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 4W 4D 2L at Nordic Wellness Arena — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Orgryte IS stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Allsvenskan matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Orgryte IS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Orgryte IS's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, BK Hacken have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 0, Orgryte IS 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 7.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Jul 2026, ended 3–4 with Orgryte IS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Orgryte IS in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 56% versus Orgryte IS 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 52% | Orgryte IS 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.00 xG and Orgryte IS 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 0.936 / defence 1.120 | Orgryte IS attack 0.679 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.466 / away 1.325. Orgryte IS bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 BK Hacken games / 22 Orgryte IS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 60% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 18%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Orgryte IS 5.56. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Orgryte IS 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Nordic Wellness Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 60% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 55% | xG BK Hacken 2.00 / Orgryte IS 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 0.936 / def 1.120 | Orgryte IS attack 0.679 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.466 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.00
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Orgryte IS xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS kick off?
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Nordic Wellness Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?
BK Hacken 3 - 0 Orgryte IS.
Where is BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS being played?
The match is being played at Nordic Wellness Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS part of?
BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 60% chance of winning, Orgryte IS a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BK Hacken and Orgryte IS will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Orgryte IS?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 0W | Draws 0 | Orgryte IS 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Orgryte IS in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Orgryte IS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (0.94) and Orgryte IS's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 2.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Orgryte IS's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.56
18%
5.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
10.0%
Home win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.00
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.00
1.01
Orgryte IS xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
5.52
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
37%
2.74
14%
7.36
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
40.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Orgryte IS expected to score?
The model projects 2.00 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.01 for Orgryte IS, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
BK Hacken come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 17D 17L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-W. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Orgryte IS sit at 1.37 PPG from 52 outings (19W 14D 19L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Orgryte IS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: BK Hacken on 1.37 PPG, Orgryte IS on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
BK Hacken's home form reads 8W 9D 9L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Orgryte IS have taken 1.23 points per game from 26 outings (9W 5D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
BK Hacken are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Orgryte IS are on 1.58 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Orgryte IS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Orgryte IS in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 18W 17D 17L in their last 52 games (1.37 PPG), while Orgryte IS have gone 19W 14D 19L in their last 52 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Orgryte IS away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.27 PPG; Orgryte IS away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
1
BK Hacken
0
Draws
1
Orgryte IS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Orgryte IS?
From 2 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 1, Orgryte IS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Orgryte IS last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when BK Hacken 3-0 Orgryte IS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Orgryte IS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 73%, Orgryte IS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (BK Hacken) and 54% (Orgryte IS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Orgryte IS in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Orgryte IS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Orgryte IS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of BK Hacken's games and 50% of Orgryte IS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Orgryte IS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of BK Hacken's matches and 54% of Orgryte IS's.
Do BK Hacken and Orgryte IS tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Orgryte IS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Orgryte IS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Orgryte IS 3-0 at Nordic Wellness Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.00 xG and Orgryte IS 1.01 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Orgryte IS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against Orgryte IS attack 0.68 / defence 1.45, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 60% | Draw 22% | Orgryte IS 18%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 52%, Orgryte IS 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Orgryte IS's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.37 PPG, Orgryte IS 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. Orgryte IS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.