BK Hacken 2-0 IFK Varnamo – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 52%, yet in-form IFK Varnamo provide a compelling counter-argument — this BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo meet at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan (matchday 10). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
BK Hacken have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, BK Hacken have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
IFK Varnamo's record over their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
IFK Varnamo's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 6D 3L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
IFK Varnamo arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 6 H2H matches in our data, BK Hacken edge it 3 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2024, ended BK Hacken 1–1 IFK Varnamo — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.2 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
IFK Varnamo half-time and goal-timing data (last 60 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — BK Hacken 63% versus IFK Varnamo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 72% | IFK Varnamo 45%). Note also that IFK Varnamo surrender HT leads in 28% of cases while BK Hacken recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.21 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.190 / defence 1.230 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.902 / defence 1.336. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.405. IFK Varnamo's defence rating of 1.336 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing BK Hacken's projected output up. BK Hacken's defence rating of 1.230 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing IFK Varnamo's projected output up. Data: built from BK Hacken's last 39 games and IFK Varnamo's last 39.
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 20% | IFK Varnamo 27%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.90 | Draw 4.91 | IFK Varnamo 3.69. BK Hacken hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS Yes probability 70% | Total xG 3.77. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.77 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% — both xG figures (2.21 / 1.56) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates BK Hacken as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form IFK Varnamo (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not.
Poisson projects 3.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (BK Hacken's last 10 home games and IFK Varnamo's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 70% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: BK Hacken 70% (last 10 home games) | IFK Varnamo 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo | Competition: Allsvenskan, matchday 10 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 52% | Draw 20% | IFK Varnamo 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% (Under 27%) | BTTS Yes 70% (No 30%) | xG BK Hacken 2.21 / IFK Varnamo 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.190 / def 1.230 | IFK Varnamo attack 0.902 / def 1.336 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.21
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.56
IFK Varnamo xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo FAQs
What time does BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo kick off?
BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo?
BK Hacken 2 - 0 IFK Varnamo.
Where is BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo part of?
BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo is a Allsvenskan fixture (matchday 10) (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 52% chance of winning, IFK Varnamo a 27% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.19) and IFK Varnamo's defence rating (1.34), the model arrives at 2.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — IFK Varnamo's attack (0.90x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.56.
These ratings are built from BK Hacken's last 39 games and IFK Varnamo's last 39 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
52%
1.90
20%
4.91
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.21
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.77
1.56
IFK Varnamo xG
1.90
52%
Home win
4.91
20%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.37
Clean Sheet
21%
4.76
11%
9.11
Win to Nil
11%
9.06
3%
33.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 8.0 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo expected to score?
The model projects 2.21 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.56 for IFK Varnamo, a combined total of 3.77.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, BK Hacken have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 30W 9D 21L record — W-W-L-L-L across the most recent five.
IFK Varnamo's form line: 21W 14D 25L from 60 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.28 for IFK Varnamo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, BK Hacken have posted 2.10 PPG from their last 30 home games (20W 3D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.65 PPG overall — BK Hacken are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, IFK Varnamo have gone 12W 8D 10L from their last 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
BK Hacken are averaging 2.05 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; IFK Varnamo are on 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
BK Hacken (Home) vs IFK Varnamo (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
BK Hacken
Current Season
IFK Varnamo
Current Season
❓ BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo Form FAQs
What form are BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 30W 9D 21L in their last 60 games (1.65 PPG), while IFK Varnamo have gone 21W 14D 25L in their last 60 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or IFK Varnamo away?
BK Hacken's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 2.10 PPG; IFK Varnamo away: 1.47 PPG.
Have BK Hacken or IFK Varnamo been keeping clean sheets recently?
BK Hacken have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, IFK Varnamo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Allsvenskan. The most recent in our data was on 24 August 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
BK Hacken have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: BK Hacken won IFK Varnamo 1-5 BK Hacken on 24 Aug 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, BK Hacken have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against IFK Varnamo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
BK Hacken
2
Draws
1
IFK Varnamo
Recent Meetings
❓ BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, BK Hacken have won 5, IFK Varnamo have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2025: IFK Varnamo 1-5 BK Hacken.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
IFK Varnamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 77%, IFK Varnamo 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for BK Hacken and 47% for IFK Varnamo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 63% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: IFK Varnamo in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / IFK Varnamo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ BK Hacken vs IFK Varnamo Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of BK Hacken's games and 50% of IFK Varnamo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of BK Hacken's matches and 47% of IFK Varnamo's.
Do BK Hacken and IFK Varnamo matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of BK Hacken's recent matches and 77% of IFK Varnamo's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over IFK Varnamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat IFK Varnamo 2-0 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 10, in the Allsvenskan. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.21 xG and IFK Varnamo 1.56 xG, a combined 3.77. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. IFK Varnamo landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.19 / defence 1.23 against IFK Varnamo attack 0.90 / defence 1.34, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 52% | Draw 20% | IFK Varnamo 27%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 72%, IFK Varnamo 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
IFK Varnamo's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.65 PPG, IFK Varnamo 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. IFK Varnamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.