BK Hacken 4-1 GIF Sundsvall – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 79% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Bravida Arena plays host to BK Hacken versus GIF Sundsvall in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off: Saturday 15 October 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
BK Hacken have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Allsvenskan outings this season: 5W 5D 0L. Last five: D D D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 6W 3D 1L at Bravida Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
GIF Sundsvall (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Allsvenskan outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for GIF Sundsvall, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Allsvenskan this season, GIF Sundsvall have posted 0W 2D 8L from 10 away outings — 0.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.60 in BK Hacken's favour (2.00 vs 0.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, GIF Sundsvall in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for BK Hacken, 0 for GIF Sundsvall and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 6.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 18 Jul 2022, ended 5–1 with BK Hacken winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
BK Hacken half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
GIF Sundsvall half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 74% and GIF Sundsvall 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 60% | GIF Sundsvall 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 2.90 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.324 / defence 1.052 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.679 / defence 1.492. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.137. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — their λ of 2.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. GIF Sundsvall bring a strong defensive rating of 1.492 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 55 BK Hacken games / 25 GIF Sundsvall games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 79% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 6%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.27 | Draw 6.67 | GIF Sundsvall 16.67. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (79%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.71. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.71 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is BK Hacken at 79% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 72% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | GIF Sundsvall 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Oct 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 79% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 6% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 54% | xG BK Hacken 2.90 / GIF Sundsvall 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.324 / def 1.052 | GIF Sundsvall attack 0.679 / def 1.492 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.137 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (79%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.90
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.81
GIF Sundsvall xG
54%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall kick off?
BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 October 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall?
BK Hacken 4 - 1 GIF Sundsvall.
Where is BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall part of?
BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 79% chance of winning, GIF Sundsvall a 6% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall?
Record (1 meetings): BK Hacken 1W | Draws 0 | GIF Sundsvall 0W.
What form are BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-D-W. GIF Sundsvall (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates BK Hacken's attack at 1.32x the league average against GIF Sundsvall's defence at 1.49x — combine the two and it projects 2.90 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — GIF Sundsvall's attack (0.68x) against BK Hacken's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.81.
These ratings are built from 55/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
79%
1.27
15%
6.79
6%
15.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.90
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.71
0.81
GIF Sundsvall xG
1.27
79%
Home win
6.79
15%
Draw
15.41
6%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
5%
18.21
Win to Nil
35%
2.86
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.9 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall expected to score?
The model projects 2.90 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.81 for GIF Sundsvall, a combined total of 3.71.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 79%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
BK Hacken come into this having played 55 games, going 23W 18D 14L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-D-W. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, GIF Sundsvall sit at 1.22 PPG from 55 outings (19W 10D 26L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for GIF Sundsvall is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for BK Hacken against 1.22 for GIF Sundsvall. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
BK Hacken's home form reads 13W 6D 8L across 27 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, GIF Sundsvall have taken 0.89 points per game from 27 outings (6W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
BK Hacken are averaging 1.82 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; GIF Sundsvall are on 1.27 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 55 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
GIF Sundsvall
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 23W 18D 14L in their last 55 games (1.58 PPG), while GIF Sundsvall have gone 19W 10D 26L in their last 55 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or GIF Sundsvall away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.67 PPG; GIF Sundsvall away: 0.89 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
BK Hacken
0
Draws
0
GIF Sundsvall
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall?
From 2 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 2, GIF Sundsvall have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2022, when BK Hacken 4-1 GIF Sundsvall.
Who has won more matches between BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall?
BK Hacken have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
GIF Sundsvall are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 70%, GIF Sundsvall 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (BK Hacken) and 48% (GIF Sundsvall). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: GIF Sundsvall in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / GIF Sundsvall away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play GIF Sundsvall?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of BK Hacken's games and 59% of GIF Sundsvall's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs GIF Sundsvall usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of BK Hacken's matches and 48% of GIF Sundsvall's.
Do BK Hacken and GIF Sundsvall tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, GIF Sundsvall in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 4-1 hammering of GIF Sundsvall.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat GIF Sundsvall 4-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 26, in the Allsvenskan. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 2.90 xG and GIF Sundsvall 0.81 xG, a combined 3.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.32 / defence 1.05 against GIF Sundsvall attack 0.68 / defence 1.49, drawn from 55/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 79% | Draw 15% | GIF Sundsvall 6%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 79%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 60%, GIF Sundsvall 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
GIF Sundsvall's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — BK Hacken 1.58 PPG, GIF Sundsvall 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the BK Hacken win broke the near-deadlock. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.15 average — above their attacking norm. GIF Sundsvall (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.