BK Hacken 2-2 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates BK Hacken at 81% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host Degerfors IF at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for BK Hacken, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 7W 1D 2L at Bravida Arena — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Degerfors IF, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 0D 9L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.10 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 2, Degerfors IF 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 2–1 with BK Hacken winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 74% and Degerfors IF 52% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 64% | Degerfors IF 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 3.11 xG and Degerfors IF 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.462 / defence 1.001 | Degerfors IF attack 0.756 / defence 1.439. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.144. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 3.11 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.439 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 BK Hacken games / 50 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 81% | Draw 12% | Degerfors IF 7%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.23 | Draw 8.33 | Degerfors IF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.98. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 3.98 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 3.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 70% | Degerfors IF 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 81% | Draw 12% | Degerfors IF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 55% | xG BK Hacken 3.11 / Degerfors IF 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.462 / def 1.001 | Degerfors IF attack 0.756 / def 1.439 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (81%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.11
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Degerfors IF xG
55%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
BK Hacken 2 - 2 Degerfors IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 81% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 7% chance, and a 12% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both BK Hacken and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
Record (3 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 0 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Degerfors IF (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.46) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.44), the model arrives at 3.11 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
81%
1.23
12%
8.56
7%
14.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.11
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
3.98
0.87
Degerfors IF xG
1.23
81%
Home win
8.56
12%
Draw
14.25
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.80
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
4%
22.44
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.4 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.3 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 3.11 expected goals for BK Hacken and 0.87 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 3.98.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 50 games, going 22W 14D 14L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W. The sample for BK Hacken is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 0.98 PPG from 50 outings (14W 7D 29L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Degerfors IF is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 13W 4D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.60 points per game from 25 outings (4W 3D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.04 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Blended
Degerfors IF
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 22W 14D 14L in their last 50 games (1.60 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 14W 7D 29L in their last 50 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Degerfors IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.72 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 68%, Degerfors IF 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (BK Hacken) and 48% (Degerfors IF). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of BK Hacken's games and 44% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of BK Hacken's matches and 48% of Degerfors IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
BK Hacken and Degerfors IF share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 21, as BK Hacken and Degerfors IF drew 2-2 in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 3.11 xG and Degerfors IF 0.87 xG, a combined 3.98. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. BK Hacken fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Degerfors IF outscored their 0.87 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.46 / defence 1.00 against Degerfors IF attack 0.76 / defence 1.44, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 81% | Draw 12% | Degerfors IF 7%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 81%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 64%, Degerfors IF 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.72 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.