BK Hacken 6-1 Degerfors IF – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates BK Hacken at 83%, yet other data sources diverge — this BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
BK Hacken host Degerfors IF at Bravida Arena in Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
BK Hacken — All Games: 5W 5D 0L from 10 Allsvenskan outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, BK Hacken have posted 5W 4D 1L at Bravida Arena — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Allsvenskan games this season, Degerfors IF have recorded 3W 7D 0L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Degerfors IF's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Allsvenskan this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.00 PPG (BK Hacken) versus 1.60 (Degerfors IF). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, BK Hacken have won 2, Degerfors IF 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
BK Hacken in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Degerfors IF in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — BK Hacken 75% and Degerfors IF 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (BK Hacken 63% | Degerfors IF 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects BK Hacken 3.54 xG and Degerfors IF 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: BK Hacken attack 1.386 / defence 1.204 | Degerfors IF attack 0.820 / defence 1.592. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.068. BK Hacken carry an above-average attack strength of 1.386 — their λ of 3.54 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Degerfors IF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.592 — this is suppressing BK Hacken's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 BK Hacken games / 37 Degerfors IF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: BK Hacken 83% | Draw 11% | Degerfors IF 7%. Fair-value odds: BK Hacken 1.20 | Draw 9.09 | Degerfors IF 14.29. The model has a clear lean to BK Hacken (83%) — a 76pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 84% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 84% — a total xG of 4.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (3.54 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, BK Hacken are the pick at 83% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 4.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 84% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: BK Hacken 80% | Degerfors IF 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF | Competition: Allsvenskan, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Bravida Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: BK Hacken 83% | Draw 11% | Degerfors IF 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 84% | BTTS 64% | xG BK Hacken 3.54 / Degerfors IF 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: BK Hacken attack 1.386 / def 1.204 | Degerfors IF attack 0.820 / def 1.592 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: BK Hacken (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.54
BK Hacken xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
64%
BTTS
95%
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
67%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kick off?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Bravida Arena.
What was the final score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
BK Hacken 6 - 1 Degerfors IF.
Where is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF being played?
The match is being played at Bravida Arena.
What competition is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF part of?
BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Allsvenskan (Sweden).
Who is favourite to win BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our statistical model gives BK Hacken a 83% chance of winning, Degerfors IF a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making BK Hacken the favourite.
Will both teams score in BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both BK Hacken and Degerfors IF will score (BTTS).
Will BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 84%.
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
Record (4 meetings): BK Hacken 2W | Draws 1 | Degerfors IF 1W.
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in?
BK Hacken (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Degerfors IF (all comps): 3W-7D-0L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from BK Hacken's attack rating (1.39) and Degerfors IF's defence rating (1.59), the model arrives at 3.54 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Degerfors IF's attack versus BK Hacken's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 3-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 7.9%. Close behind: 3-0 (7.5%), 4-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
BK Hacken Win
83%
1.21
11%
9.43
7%
14.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
7.5%
Home win
4 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.54
BK Hacken xG
Total xG
4.60
1.05
Degerfors IF xG
1.21
83%
Home win
9.43
11%
Draw
14.68
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
94%
Over 1.5
1.06
6%
Under 1.5
16.67
84%
Over 2.5
1.19
16%
Under 2.5
6.25
67%
Over 3.5
1.49
33%
Under 3.5
3.03
49%
Over 4.5
2.04
51%
Under 4.5
1.96
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
3%
34.54
Win to Nil
29%
3.48
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 7.9%.
How many goals are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF expected to score?
The model projects 3.54 expected goals for BK Hacken and 1.05 for Degerfors IF, a combined total of 4.60.
How confident is the prediction model for BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
BK Hacken come into this having played 60 games, going 27W 19D 14L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Degerfors IF sit at 1.08 PPG from 60 outings (17W 14D 29L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-D across their last five.
BK Hacken carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Degerfors IF — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
BK Hacken's home form reads 15W 7D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.73 PPG return.
Away from home, Degerfors IF have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (5W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, BK Hacken come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
BK Hacken are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Degerfors IF are on 1.10 scored and 1.67 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: BK Hacken have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games.
Last 60 Results — Allsvenskan
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
BK Hacken
Current Season
Degerfors IF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are BK Hacken and Degerfors IF in coming into this match?
BK Hacken have gone 27W 19D 14L in their last 60 games (1.67 PPG), while Degerfors IF have gone 17W 14D 29L in their last 60 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — BK Hacken at home or Degerfors IF away?
BK Hacken's home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — BK Hacken at home: 1.73 PPG; Degerfors IF away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Allsvenskan. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 May 2023, when BK Hacken won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
BK Hacken's record when hosting Degerfors IF specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
BK Hacken
3
Draws
3
Degerfors IF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between BK Hacken and Degerfors IF?
From 9 meetings on record, BK Hacken have won 3, Degerfors IF have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did BK Hacken and Degerfors IF last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Degerfors IF 1-1 BK Hacken.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
BK Hacken are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Degerfors IF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — BK Hacken 73%, Degerfors IF 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for BK Hacken and 50% for Degerfors IF. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Degerfors IF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = BK Hacken home games / Degerfors IF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when BK Hacken play Degerfors IF?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of BK Hacken's games and 53% of Degerfors IF's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is BK Hacken vs Degerfors IF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of BK Hacken's matches and 50% of Degerfors IF's.
Do BK Hacken and Degerfors IF tend to score early?
BK Hacken have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Degerfors IF in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant BK Hacken run riot with a 6-1 hammering of Degerfors IF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
BK Hacken beat Degerfors IF 6-1 at Bravida Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Allsvenskan. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting BK Hacken 3.54 xG and Degerfors IF 1.05 xG, a combined 4.60. The scoreboard read 6-1 for 7 actual goals. BK Hacken beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of BK Hacken attack 1.39 / defence 1.20 against Degerfors IF attack 0.82 / defence 1.59, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it BK Hacken 83% | Draw 11% | Degerfors IF 7%, with BK Hacken to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 84%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 95% and landed. Over 3.5 was 67% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (BK Hacken 63%, Degerfors IF 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
BK Hacken's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Degerfors IF's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, BK Hacken arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. BK Hacken (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.23 average — above their attacking norm. Degerfors IF (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.