Villarreal 2-1 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 15 as Villarreal welcome Valencia to Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off is set for Saturday 31 December 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Villarreal — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Villarreal have posted 5W 3D 2L at Estadio de la Cerámica — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Villarreal are significantly better at Estadio de la Cerámica than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Valencia stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Valencia have gone 1W 6D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Villarreal) versus 1.30 (Valencia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Villarreal, 1 for Valencia and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2022, ended 2–0 with Villarreal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Valencia in-play and half-time data (52 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 38% versus Valencia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Villarreal 40% | Valencia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.43 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.070 / defence 0.974 | Valencia attack 1.021 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.335 / away 1.085. Data: 52 Villarreal games / 52 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 29% | Valencia 27%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Valencia 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Villarreal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 50% | Valencia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Dec 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 44% | Draw 29% | Valencia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Villarreal 1.43 / Valencia 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.070 / def 0.974 | Valencia attack 1.021 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.335 / away 1.085 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Valencia xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Valencia kick off?
Villarreal vs Valencia kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 31 December 2022 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Villarreal 2 - 1 Valencia.
Where is Villarreal vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Valencia part of?
Villarreal vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 44% chance of winning, Valencia a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Villarreal and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
Record (2 meetings): Villarreal 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in?
Villarreal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Villarreal's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Valencia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Valencia's attack versus Villarreal's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.46
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.51
1.08
Valencia xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
6%
15.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 12.5 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Villarreal and 1.08 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Villarreal come into this having played 52 games, going 22W 14D 16L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 1.29 PPG from 52 outings (16W 19D 17L), a run that reads D-L-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Villarreal on 1.54 PPG, Valencia on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Villarreal's home form reads 13W 7D 4L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 1.12 points per game from 24 outings (6W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Villarreal are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.35 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia in 62%.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Valencia in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 22W 14D 16L in their last 52 games (1.54 PPG), while Valencia have gone 16W 19D 17L in their last 52 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Valencia away?
Villarreal's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.92 PPG; Valencia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Valencia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Valencia in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Villarreal have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Villarreal's record when hosting Valencia specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Valencia?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Valencia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Valencia?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 50%, Valencia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Villarreal) and 50% (Valencia).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Valencia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Villarreal's games and 67% of Valencia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Villarreal vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Villarreal's recent games and 50% of Valencia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Valencia tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Valencia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Villarreal edge out Valencia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Valencia 2-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 15, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.43 xG and Valencia 1.08 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Valencia attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 44% | Draw 29% | Valencia 27%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 40%, Valencia 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Valencia's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.54 PPG, Valencia 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.