Villarreal 2-0 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Villarreal at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Villarreal vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Villarreal and Osasuna meet at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 9. This fixture gets under way on Monday 17 October 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Villarreal (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Villarreal at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
Osasuna's overall La Liga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Villarreal, 2 for Osasuna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2022, ended 0–1 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Villarreal goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Osasuna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 41% versus Osasuna 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Villarreal 41% | Osasuna 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 1.27 xG and Osasuna 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 1.204 / defence 0.852 | Osasuna attack 0.878 / defence 0.787. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.186. Osasuna's defence strength of 0.787 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Villarreal games / 46 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 45% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 26%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Osasuna 3.85. Villarreal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Villarreal as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Villarreal if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.15 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Villarreal 50% | Osasuna 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Ciudad de Valencia • Kick-off: Monday 17 Oct 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 45% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Villarreal 1.27 / Osasuna 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 1.204 / def 0.852 | Osasuna attack 0.878 / def 0.787 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Villarreal (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Osasuna xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Osasuna kick off?
Villarreal vs Osasuna kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 17 October 2022 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Villarreal 2 - 0 Osasuna.
Where is Villarreal vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
What competition is Villarreal vs Osasuna part of?
Villarreal vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 45% chance of winning, Osasuna a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Villarreal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Villarreal and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Record (2 meetings): Villarreal 0W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 2W.
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in?
Villarreal (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Villarreal's attack rating (1.20) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.79), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Osasuna's attack (0.88x) against Villarreal's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Villarreal Win
45%
2.21
29%
3.47
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Villarreal xG
Total xG
2.15
0.89
Osasuna xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
7%
13.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 10.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.0 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.89 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Villarreal come into this having played 46 games, going 19W 14D 13L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.30 PPG from 46 outings (16W 12D 18L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-L across their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.54 PPG for Villarreal against 1.30 for Osasuna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Villarreal's home form reads 11W 7D 3L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.24 points per game from 21 outings (7W 5D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Villarreal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Villarreal are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 19W 14D 13L in their last 46 games (1.54 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 12D 18L in their last 46 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Villarreal at home or Osasuna away?
Villarreal's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Villarreal at home: 1.90 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Villarreal or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 0-3 on 19 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Osasuna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Villarreal
3
Draws
2
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 5, Osasuna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Osasuna 2-2 Villarreal.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Osasuna?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Villarreal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 52%, Osasuna 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Villarreal) and 29% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Osasuna in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Villarreal's recent matches and 33% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Villarreal's recent games and 29% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Osasuna tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Villarreal cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Osasuna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Osasuna 2-0 at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia, Regular Season - 9, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 1.27 xG and Osasuna 0.89 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Osasuna landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 1.20 / defence 0.85 against Osasuna attack 0.88 / defence 0.79, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 45% | Draw 29% | Osasuna 26%, with Villarreal to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 41%, Osasuna 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (46 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Osasuna's trading profile (46 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.54 PPG, Osasuna 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Osasuna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.