Villarreal 4-1 Elche – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Villarreal take on Elche.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio de la Cerámica plays host to Villarreal versus Elche in La Liga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 21:00 UTC.
Current Form
Villarreal's overall La Liga record this term: 0W 4D 0L from 4 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 4 games (75%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Villarreal have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Elche (all games): 1W 3D 1L across 5 La Liga outings this term — 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Elche have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Villarreal half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 0% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time; they fail to score in 75% of games.
Elche half-time and goal-timing data (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Villarreal 25% versus Elche 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Villarreal 25% | Elche 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Villarreal 0.74 xG and Elche 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Villarreal attack 0.803 / defence 1.044 | Elche attack 0.724 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 0.887 / away 1.117. Data: 4 Villarreal games / 5 Elche games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Villarreal 25% | Draw 43% | Elche 31%. Fair-value odds: Villarreal 4.00 | Draw 2.33 | Elche 3.23. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.58. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.58 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Villarreal's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 25% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Villarreal 25% | Elche 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Villarreal vs Elche | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estadio de la Cerámica • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Villarreal 25% | Draw 43% | Elche 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 34% | xG Villarreal 0.74 / Elche 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Villarreal attack 0.803 / def 1.044 | Elche attack 0.724 / def 1.038 | league avg home 0.887 / away 1.117 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Villarreal xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Elche xG
34%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Villarreal vs Elche kick off?
Villarreal vs Elche kicked off at 21:00 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What was the final score in Villarreal vs Elche?
Villarreal 4 - 1 Elche.
Where is Villarreal vs Elche being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de la Cerámica.
What competition is Villarreal vs Elche part of?
Villarreal vs Elche is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Villarreal vs Elche?
Our statistical model gives Villarreal a 25% chance of winning, Elche a 31% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Villarreal vs Elche?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Villarreal and Elche will score (BTTS).
Will Villarreal vs Elche have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Elche?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Villarreal and Elche in?
Villarreal (all comps): 0W-4D-0L in 4 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-D-D-D. Elche (all comps): 1W-3D-1L in 5 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Villarreal's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Elche's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. Flip it around — Elche's attack (0.72x) against Villarreal's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 4/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
25%
3.94
43%
2.32
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Villarreal xG
Total xG
1.58
0.84
Elche xG
3.94
25%
Home win
2.32
43%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.97
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
15%
6.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.5 | 17.3 | 7.3 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Villarreal vs Elche?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.2%.
How many goals are Villarreal and Elche expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Villarreal and 0.84 for Elche, a combined total of 1.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Villarreal vs Elche?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Villarreal's recent record stands at 0W 4D 0L from 4 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Villarreal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Elche, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 1L across 4 games — 1.25 PPG, with L-D-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Elche, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Villarreal against 1.25 for Elche. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Villarreal are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Elche are on 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Villarreal
Early Season
Elche
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Villarreal and Elche in coming into this match?
Villarreal have gone 0W 4D 0L in their last 4 games (1.00 PPG), while Elche have gone 1W 2D 1L in their last 4 (1.25 PPG).
Have Villarreal or Elche been keeping clean sheets recently?
Villarreal have kept a clean sheet in 75% of their recent games, Elche in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Villarreal won 4-0 on 4 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Villarreal have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Elche — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Villarreal
0
Draws
2
Elche
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Villarreal and Elche?
From 6 meetings on record, Villarreal have won 4, Elche have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Villarreal and Elche last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Elche.
Who has won more matches between Villarreal and Elche?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Villarreal tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Elche are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Villarreal 25%, Elche 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Villarreal and 0% for Elche.
On the defensive side: Villarreal keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches; Villarreal have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Villarreal home games / Elche away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Villarreal play Elche?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Villarreal's recent matches and 50% of Elche's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Villarreal vs Elche usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Villarreal's recent games and 0% of Elche's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Villarreal and Elche tend to score early?
Villarreal have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Elche in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Villarreal run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Elche.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Villarreal beat Elche 4-1 at Estadio de la Cerámica, Regular Season - 6, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Villarreal 0.74 xG and Elche 0.84 xG, a combined 1.58. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Villarreal beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Villarreal attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Elche attack 0.72 / defence 1.04, drawn from 4/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Villarreal 25% | Draw 43% | Elche 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Villarreal win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Villarreal 25%, Elche 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Villarreal's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 75% of the time, and conceded here.
Elche's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Villarreal 1.00 PPG, Elche 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Villarreal win broke the near-deadlock. Villarreal scored 4 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm. Elche shipped 4 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.