Valladolid 1-0 Valencia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Valencia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 1W 3D 4L from 8 home games — 0.75 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Valencia (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia away from home this season: 0W 3D 7L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Valencia are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (0.90 vs 0.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Valladolid, 1 for Valencia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2023, ended 1–2 with Valencia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 50% versus Valencia 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 62% | Valencia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.11 xG and Valencia 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.652 / defence 1.410 | Valencia attack 0.779 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.468 / away 1.189. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.652 is below the league average — the 1.11 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 16 Valladolid games / 52 Valencia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 32% | Draw 27% | Valencia 41%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Valencia 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Valladolid 50% | Valencia 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Valencia | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 32% | Draw 27% | Valencia 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Valladolid 1.11 / Valencia 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.652 / def 1.410 | Valencia attack 0.779 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.468 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Valencia (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Valencia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Valencia kick off?
Valladolid vs Valencia kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Valencia?
Valladolid 1 - 0 Valencia.
Where is Valladolid vs Valencia being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Valencia part of?
Valladolid vs Valencia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 32% chance of winning, Valencia a 41% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Valladolid and Valencia will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Valencia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Valencia?
Record (2 meetings): Valladolid 1W | Draws 0 | Valencia 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Valencia in?
Valladolid (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Valencia (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.65) and Valencia's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valencia's attack (0.78x) against Valladolid's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 16/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.6%), 0-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
32%
3.17
27%
3.65
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Valladolid xG
Total xG
2.42
1.31
Valencia xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
9%
11.73
14%
7.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Valencia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Valencia expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Valladolid and 1.31 for Valencia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Valencia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valladolid come into this having played 16 games, going 2W 3D 11L for 0.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Valencia sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.56 PPG for Valladolid against 0.69 for Valencia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valladolid's home form reads 1W 3D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.75 PPG return.
Away from home, Valencia have taken 0.38 points per game from 8 outings (0W 3D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Valladolid are averaging 0.69 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game recently; Valencia are on 1.00 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 16 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Valencia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Valencia in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 2W 3D 11L in their last 16 games (0.56 PPG), while Valencia have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Valencia away?
Valladolid's home record (0.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 0.75 PPG; Valencia away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to January 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valencia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valladolid
0
Draws
2
Valencia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Valencia?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 2, Valencia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Valencia last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Valencia 2-1 Valladolid.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valladolid 50%, Valencia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Valladolid) and 62% (Valencia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 38% of games; Valencia in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Valencia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Valencia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Valladolid's recent matches and 50% of Valencia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Valencia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Valladolid's matches and 62% of Valencia's.
Do Valladolid and Valencia tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Valencia in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Valladolid defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valladolid beat Valencia 1-0 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 17, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.11 xG and Valencia 1.31 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Valencia landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.65 / defence 1.41 against Valencia attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 16/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 32% | Draw 27% | Valencia 41%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Valladolid win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 62%, Valencia 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Valencia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 0.56 PPG, Valencia 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valladolid win broke the near-deadlock. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. Valencia (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.