Valladolid 2-3 Osasuna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Osasuna at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valladolid vs Osasuna encounter.

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Match Analysis

Valladolid host Osasuna at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla in La Liga (matchday 32). Kick-off is Sunday 20 April 2025 at 14:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Valladolid — last 10 games: 0W 1D 9L, averaging 0.10 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 3.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Valladolid have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Osasuna stand at 2W 5D 3L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Osasuna away from home: 0W 6D 4L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Osasuna — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Valladolid have won 0, Osasuna 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended Valladolid 0–1 Osasuna — a Osasuna win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Valladolid in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Osasuna in-play tendencies (last 31 games, 15 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 40% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valladolid 48% versus Osasuna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valladolid 64% | Osasuna 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 0.65 xG and Osasuna 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.543 / defence 1.440 | Osasuna attack 0.649 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.239. Valladolid's attack rating of 0.543 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Osasuna's attack rating of 0.649 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Valladolid's defence rating of 1.440 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Osasuna's projected output up. Data: built from Valladolid's last 31 games and Osasuna's last 69.

Result probabilities: Valladolid 21% | Draw 31% | Osasuna 48%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 4.81 | Draw 3.20 | Osasuna 2.09. Osasuna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Valladolid's lower xG of 0.65 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Osasuna are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Osasuna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 1.81 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 73% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Valladolid's last 10 home games and Osasuna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 67%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valladolid 30% (last 10 home games) | Osasuna 40% (last 10 away games).

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