Valladolid 3-3 Mallorca – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valladolid at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valladolid vs Mallorca fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla plays host to Valladolid versus Mallorca in La Liga, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valladolid have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valladolid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valladolid at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Valladolid are significantly better at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla than their overall form suggests.
Mallorca's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mallorca, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Mallorca have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Valladolid against 1.10 for Mallorca. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valladolid lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Jan 2023, ended 0–1 with Mallorca winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
Mallorca goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Valladolid 33% | Mallorca 33%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valladolid 48% | Mallorca 18%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valladolid 1.12 xG and Mallorca 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valladolid attack 0.774 / defence 1.155 | Mallorca attack 0.703 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.017. Valladolid's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 27 Valladolid games / 65 Mallorca games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valladolid 42% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 27%. Fair-value odds: Valladolid 2.38 | Draw 3.23 | Mallorca 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.95. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.95 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valladolid as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valladolid if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.95 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Valladolid 40% | Mallorca 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valladolid vs Mallorca | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valladolid 42% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 38% | xG Valladolid 1.12 / Mallorca 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Valladolid attack 0.774 / def 1.155 | Mallorca attack 0.703 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.017 • Poisson stance: Valladolid (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Valladolid xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Mallorca xG
38%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valladolid vs Mallorca kick off?
Valladolid vs Mallorca kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What was the final score in Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Valladolid 3 - 3 Mallorca.
Where is Valladolid vs Mallorca being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla.
What competition is Valladolid vs Mallorca part of?
Valladolid vs Mallorca is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our statistical model gives Valladolid a 42% chance of winning, Mallorca a 27% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valladolid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Valladolid and Mallorca will score (BTTS).
Will Valladolid vs Mallorca have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Mallorca?
Record (1 meetings): Valladolid 0W | Draws 0 | Mallorca 1W.
What form are Valladolid and Mallorca in?
Valladolid (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Mallorca (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valladolid's attack rating (0.77) and Mallorca's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mallorca's attack (0.70x) against Valladolid's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 27/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valladolid Win
42%
2.36
31%
3.24
27%
3.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Valladolid xG
Total xG
1.95
0.83
Mallorca xG
2.36
42%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.73
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.64
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Valladolid and Mallorca expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Valladolid and 0.83 for Mallorca, a combined total of 1.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Valladolid vs Mallorca?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Valladolid have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 8W 4D 15L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Valladolid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mallorca's form line: 9W 6D 12L from 27 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Mallorca is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Valladolid against 1.22 for Mallorca. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valladolid have posted 1.54 PPG from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.04 PPG overall — Valladolid are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Mallorca have gone 3W 2D 8L from 13 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valladolid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valladolid are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.63 conceded per game recently; Mallorca are on 0.81 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 27 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valladolid
Blended
Mallorca
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valladolid and Mallorca in coming into this match?
Valladolid have gone 8W 4D 15L in their last 27 games (1.04 PPG), while Mallorca have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valladolid at home or Mallorca away?
Valladolid's home record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valladolid at home: 1.54 PPG; Mallorca away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Valladolid or Mallorca been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valladolid have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Mallorca in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Mallorca go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valladolid have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mallorca — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Valladolid
1
Draws
3
Mallorca
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valladolid and Mallorca?
From 4 meetings on record, Valladolid have won 0, Mallorca have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Valladolid and Mallorca last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2025, when Mallorca 2-1 Valladolid.
Who has won more matches between Valladolid and Mallorca?
Mallorca have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valladolid see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Mallorca are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Valladolid) and 31% (Mallorca) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Valladolid and 23% for Mallorca.
On the defensive side: Valladolid keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Valladolid have failed to score in 46% of games; Mallorca in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valladolid home games / Mallorca away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valladolid play Mallorca?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Valladolid's recent matches and 31% of Mallorca's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valladolid vs Mallorca usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Valladolid's recent games and 23% of Mallorca's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valladolid and Mallorca tend to score early?
Valladolid have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Mallorca in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Valladolid and Mallorca share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Municipal José Zorrilla, Regular Season - 28, as Valladolid and Mallorca drew 3-3 in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valladolid 1.12 xG and Mallorca 0.83 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Valladolid beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mallorca outscored their 0.83 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valladolid attack 0.77 / defence 1.16 against Mallorca attack 0.70 / defence 1.07, drawn from 27/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valladolid 42% | Draw 31% | Mallorca 27%, with Valladolid to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. Over 3.5 was 13% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valladolid 48%, Mallorca 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valladolid's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
Mallorca's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valladolid 1.04 PPG, Mallorca 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valladolid (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mallorca (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.69 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.