Valencia 3-1 Villarreal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Villarreal fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Villarreal at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 2 January 2024 at 20:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's home record at Estadio de Mestalla: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Valencia are significantly better at Estadio de Mestalla than their overall form suggests.
Across all La Liga games this season, Villarreal have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Villarreal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Villarreal have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.30 PPG versus Villarreal's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Valencia have won 1, Villarreal 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Valencia in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 96% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Villarreal in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 48% versus Villarreal 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 45% | Villarreal 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.43 xG and Villarreal 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.853 / defence 0.747 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / defence 1.217. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.119. Villarreal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.217 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Valencia's defence rating of 0.747 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Valencia games / 56 Villarreal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.08 | Draw 3.12 | Villarreal 5.00. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Valencia are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Valencia 30% | Villarreal 80%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Villarreal | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Tuesday 2 Jan 2024, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Valencia 1.43 / Villarreal 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.853 / def 0.747 | Villarreal attack 1.025 / def 1.217 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Valencia (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Villarreal xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Villarreal kick off?
Valencia vs Villarreal kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 2 January 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Valencia 3 - 1 Villarreal.
Where is Valencia vs Villarreal being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Villarreal part of?
Valencia vs Villarreal is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 48% chance of winning, Villarreal a 20% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Valencia and Villarreal will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Villarreal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
Record (4 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 1 | Villarreal 2W.
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-D-W. Villarreal (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.85) and Villarreal's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Villarreal's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
48%
2.08
32%
3.15
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.29
0.86
Villarreal xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
5%
20.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.5 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Villarreal expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Valencia and 0.86 for Villarreal, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Villarreal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 14D 25L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Villarreal's form line: 24W 11D 21L from 56 games, 1.48 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Villarreal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.16 PPG, Villarreal on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.59 PPG from 27 outings (12W 7D 8L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Villarreal have gone 9W 7D 11L from 27 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Valencia are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Villarreal are on 1.52 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Villarreal in 61%.
Last 56 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Villarreal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Villarreal in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 17W 14D 25L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while Villarreal have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Villarreal away?
Valencia's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.59 PPG; Villarreal away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Valencia and Villarreal runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Villarreal go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Valencia's record when hosting Villarreal specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Valencia
3
Draws
5
Villarreal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Villarreal?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Villarreal have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Villarreal last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Villarreal 2-1 Valencia.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Villarreal?
Villarreal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Valencia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Villarreal see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 41%, Villarreal 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Valencia) and 48% (Villarreal).
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Villarreal in 33%; Villarreal in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Villarreal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Villarreal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Valencia's recent matches and 52% of Villarreal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Villarreal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Valencia's recent games and 48% of Villarreal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Valencia cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Villarreal.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia beat Villarreal 3-1 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 19, in the La Liga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.43 xG and Villarreal 0.86 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Valencia beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.85 / defence 0.75 against Villarreal attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 48% | Draw 32% | Villarreal 20%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Villarreal 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Villarreal's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.16 PPG, Villarreal 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Valencia win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Villarreal (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.