Valencia 0-0 Real Sociedad – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valencia at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Real Sociedad fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Real Sociedad make the trip to Estadio de Mestalla to face Valencia in La Liga, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 February 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia at Estadio de Mestalla this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Real Sociedad have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Real Sociedad, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Real Sociedad have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valencia lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Valencia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Real Sociedad goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 81% versus Real Sociedad 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valencia 67% | Real Sociedad 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.46 xG and Real Sociedad 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 1.053 / defence 1.286 | Real Sociedad attack 0.906 / defence 1.245. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.108. Real Sociedad bring a strong defensive rating of 1.245 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Valencia games / 21 Real Sociedad games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 40% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 32%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Real Sociedad 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 80% | Real Sociedad 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Real Sociedad | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 40% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Valencia 1.46 / Real Sociedad 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 1.053 / def 1.286 | Real Sociedad attack 0.906 / def 1.245 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Valencia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Real Sociedad xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Real Sociedad kick off?
Valencia vs Real Sociedad kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
Valencia 0 - 0 Real Sociedad.
Where is Valencia vs Real Sociedad being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Real Sociedad part of?
Valencia vs Real Sociedad is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 40% chance of winning, Real Sociedad a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Valencia and Real Sociedad will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Real Sociedad have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Sociedad?
Record (1 meetings): Valencia 0W | Draws 1 | Real Sociedad 0W.
What form are Valencia and Real Sociedad in?
Valencia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Real Sociedad (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Valencia's attack rating (1.05) and Real Sociedad's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Real Sociedad's attack (0.91x) against Valencia's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
40%
2.51
28%
3.56
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.75
1.29
Real Sociedad xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.12
7%
13.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.0 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Valencia and Real Sociedad expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Valencia and 1.29 for Real Sociedad, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Real Sociedad?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Valencia come into this having played 21 games, going 6W 8D 7L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Real Sociedad sit at 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (9W 7D 5L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Real Sociedad is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for Valencia against 1.62 for Real Sociedad. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Valencia's home form reads 3W 5D 2L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Real Sociedad have taken 1.50 points per game from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
Attack vs Defence
Valencia are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Real Sociedad are on 1.05 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valencia have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games.
Defensively: Real Sociedad in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Real Sociedad
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Real Sociedad in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 6W 8D 7L in their last 21 games (1.24 PPG), while Real Sociedad have gone 9W 7D 5L in their last 21 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Real Sociedad away?
Real Sociedad's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.40 PPG; Real Sociedad away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Valencia or Real Sociedad been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Real Sociedad in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Sociedad won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Real Sociedad — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Valencia
4
Draws
3
Real Sociedad
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Real Sociedad?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 3, Real Sociedad have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Real Sociedad last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Real Sociedad 3-4 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Valencia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Real Sociedad are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 80% for Valencia, 50% for Real Sociedad — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Valencia) and 40% (Real Sociedad).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Real Sociedad away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Real Sociedad?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Valencia's games and 50% of Real Sociedad's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Valencia vs Real Sociedad usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Valencia's recent games and 40% of Real Sociedad's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Real Sociedad tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Real Sociedad in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valencia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valencia and Real Sociedad finished level at 0-0 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 23, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.46 xG and Real Sociedad 1.29 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valencia fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Real Sociedad landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 1.05 / defence 1.29 against Real Sociedad attack 0.91 / defence 1.25, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 40% | Draw 28% | Real Sociedad 32%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 67%, Real Sociedad 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 81% of their matches — today it did not.
Real Sociedad's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.24 PPG, Real Sociedad 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valencia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Real Sociedad (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.