Valencia 1-2 Osasuna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Valencia at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valencia vs Osasuna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Valencia host Osasuna at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 August 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Valencia — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Valencia have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Valencia at 1.80 PPG versus Osasuna's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Valencia, 1 for Osasuna and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Valencia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Valencia trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Osasuna trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 50% versus Osasuna 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 45% | Osasuna 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.10 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.940 / defence 0.876 | Osasuna attack 1.006 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.131. Data: 40 Valencia games / 40 Osasuna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 2.70 | Draw 3.12 | Osasuna 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Valencia as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Valencia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 50% | Osasuna 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Aug 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Valencia 1.10 / Osasuna 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.940 / def 0.876 | Osasuna attack 1.006 / def 0.877 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Valencia (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Osasuna xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Osasuna kick off?
Valencia vs Osasuna kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 27 August 2023 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Valencia 1 - 2 Osasuna.
Where is Valencia vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Osasuna part of?
Valencia vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 37% chance of winning, Osasuna a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Valencia and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
Record (4 meetings): Valencia 3W | Draws 0 | Osasuna 1W.
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in?
Valencia (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Osasuna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.94) and Osasuna's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.10 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Valencia's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
37%
2.73
32%
3.11
31%
3.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.10
1.00
Osasuna xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
3.21
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
33%
3.01
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
10%
9.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.2 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Valencia and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Valencia and 1.00 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Valencia come into this having played 40 games, going 13W 9D 18L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Valencia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Osasuna sit at 1.40 PPG from 40 outings (16W 8D 16L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Valencia on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Valencia's home form reads 9W 5D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Valencia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Osasuna have taken 1.10 points per game from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Valencia are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 0.98 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 40 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 13W 9D 18L in their last 40 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Osasuna away?
Valencia's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.60 PPG; Osasuna away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Valencia or Osasuna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Osasuna in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Sep 2021, when Valencia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Valencia's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Valencia
2
Draws
3
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Valencia have won 5, Osasuna have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Valencia 1-0 Osasuna.
Who has won more matches between Valencia and Osasuna?
Valencia have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Valencia see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Osasuna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 45%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Valencia and 25% for Osasuna.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Osasuna in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Valencia's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Valencia's recent games and 25% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Osasuna tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 55% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Osasuna defy the odds to beat Valencia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Osasuna beat Valencia 1-2 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 3, in the La Liga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.10 xG and Osasuna 1.00 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Osasuna outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Osasuna attack 1.01 / defence 0.88, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 37% | Draw 32% | Osasuna 31%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Osasuna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 45%, Osasuna 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Osasuna's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.20 PPG, Osasuna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Osasuna win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Osasuna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.