Valencia 2-3 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Valencia at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valencia vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Valencia and Las Palmas meet at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Monday 21 October 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valencia's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Valencia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valencia's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at Estadio de Mestalla this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio de Mestalla.
Las Palmas (all games): 0W 4D 6L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Las Palmas, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Las Palmas's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.70 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Valencia 1W, Las Palmas 1W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2024, ended 0–2 with Las Palmas winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Valencia half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Las Palmas half-time and goal-timing data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valencia 40% versus Las Palmas 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valencia 43% | Las Palmas 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valencia 1.49 xG and Las Palmas 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valencia attack 0.824 / defence 0.816 | Las Palmas attack 0.804 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.073. Las Palmas bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Valencia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Valencia games / 47 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valencia 54% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 15%. Fair-value odds: Valencia 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Las Palmas 6.67. Valencia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valencia at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valencia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Valencia 40% | Las Palmas 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valencia vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio de Mestalla • Kick-off: Monday 21 Oct 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valencia 54% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 41% | xG Valencia 1.49 / Las Palmas 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Valencia attack 0.824 / def 0.816 | Las Palmas attack 0.804 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.073 • Poisson stance: Valencia (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Valencia xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Las Palmas xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valencia vs Las Palmas kick off?
Valencia vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 21 October 2024 at Estadio de Mestalla.
What was the final score in Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Valencia 2 - 3 Las Palmas.
Where is Valencia vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio de Mestalla.
What competition is Valencia vs Las Palmas part of?
Valencia vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Valencia a 54% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Valencia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valencia and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Valencia vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Las Palmas?
Record (2 meetings): Valencia 1W | Draws 0 | Las Palmas 1W.
What form are Valencia and Las Palmas in?
Valencia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Las Palmas (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valencia's attack rating (0.82) and Las Palmas's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.80x) against Valencia's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valencia Win
54%
1.86
31%
3.22
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Valencia xG
Total xG
2.19
0.70
Las Palmas xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
49%
2.02
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
27%
3.77
3%
28.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 7.9 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 8.7 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Valencia and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Valencia and 0.70 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Valencia vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 47 outings, Valencia have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 14W 13D 20L record — L-W-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Valencia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Las Palmas's form line: 10W 13D 24L from 47 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Las Palmas is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Valencia against 0.91 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valencia have posted 1.52 PPG from 23 outings (9W 8D 6L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 4W 4D 15L from 23 away games — 0.70 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Valencia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valencia are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 0.89 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valencia
Blended
Las Palmas
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valencia and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Valencia have gone 14W 13D 20L in their last 47 games (1.17 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 10W 13D 24L in their last 47 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valencia at home or Las Palmas away?
Valencia's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valencia at home: 1.52 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.70 PPG.
Have Valencia or Las Palmas been keeping clean sheets recently?
Valencia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Las Palmas in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valencia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Valencia
0
Draws
2
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valencia and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Valencia have won 2, Las Palmas have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Valencia and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Las Palmas 2-3 Valencia.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valencia see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valencia 39%, Las Palmas 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 35% for Valencia and 35% for Las Palmas.
On the defensive side: Valencia keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches; Valencia have failed to score in 30% of games; Las Palmas in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valencia home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valencia play Las Palmas?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Valencia's recent matches and 39% of Las Palmas's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valencia vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valencia's recent games and 35% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valencia and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Valencia have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Las Palmas defy the odds to beat Valencia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Las Palmas beat Valencia 2-3 at Estadio de Mestalla, Regular Season - 10, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valencia 1.49 xG and Las Palmas 0.70 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Las Palmas outscored their 0.70 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valencia attack 0.82 / defence 0.82 against Las Palmas attack 0.80 / defence 1.23, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valencia 54% | Draw 31% | Las Palmas 15%, with Valencia to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Las Palmas win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valencia 43%, Las Palmas 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valencia's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Las Palmas's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valencia 1.17 PPG, Las Palmas 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Las Palmas win broke the near-deadlock. Valencia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Las Palmas (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.