Sevilla 2-1 Valladolid – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Valladolid fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sevilla and Valladolid meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sevilla's overall La Liga record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán: 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Valladolid have collected 0.83 PPG across 6 La Liga outings this season: 1W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.33 per game is modest, conceding 2.17 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 6 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 17% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Valladolid have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in La Liga this season, Valladolid have posted 0W 0D 3L from 3 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 4.33 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.83 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.50 vs 0.83 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sevilla, 0 for Valladolid and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 May 2023, ended 3–0 with Sevilla winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Sevilla goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Valladolid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time; they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Sevilla 50% | Valladolid 17%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 50% | Valladolid 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.97 xG and Valladolid 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.805 / defence 1.061 | Valladolid attack 0.699 / defence 1.622. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.078. Valladolid bring a strong defensive rating of 1.622 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Sevilla games / 6 Valladolid games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 63% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 13%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Valladolid 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (63%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.77 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 50% | Valladolid 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Valladolid | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Tuesday 24 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 63% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Sevilla 1.97 / Valladolid 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.805 / def 1.061 | Valladolid attack 0.699 / def 1.622 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.078 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Valladolid xG
49%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Valladolid kick off?
Sevilla vs Valladolid kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 24 September 2024 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Sevilla 2 - 1 Valladolid.
Where is Sevilla vs Valladolid being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Valladolid part of?
Sevilla vs Valladolid is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 63% chance of winning, Valladolid a 13% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sevilla and Valladolid will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Valladolid have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valladolid?
Record (2 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 1 | Valladolid 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Valladolid in?
Sevilla (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Valladolid (all comps): 1W-2D-3L in 6 | 0.83 PPG | GF 0.33 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.81) and Valladolid's defence rating (1.62), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Valladolid's attack (0.70x) against Sevilla's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
63%
1.58
24%
4.17
13%
7.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.77
0.80
Valladolid xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
7.79
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
14%
7.14
Win to Nil
28%
3.52
2%
55.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.7 | 3.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Valladolid expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.80 for Valladolid, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Valladolid?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sevilla's recent record stands at 1W 2D 3L from 6 games, a 0.83 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valladolid, meanwhile, have gone 1W 2D 3L across 6 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Valladolid, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Sevilla against 0.83 for Valladolid. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Valladolid's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.83 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Valladolid's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sevilla are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Valladolid are on 0.33 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Valladolid in 17%.
Defensively: Valladolid in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 6 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Valladolid
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Valladolid in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 games (0.83 PPG), while Valladolid have gone 1W 2D 3L in their last 6 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Valladolid away?
Sevilla's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.00 PPG; Valladolid away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Valladolid been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Valladolid in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Sevilla have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sevilla won 0-4 on 16 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valladolid — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
1
Draws
0
Valladolid
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Valladolid?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Valladolid have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Valladolid last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Valladolid 0-4 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Valladolid?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Valladolid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Sevilla) and 33% (Valladolid) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 33% for Sevilla and 100% for Valladolid. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sevilla have failed to score in 33% of games; Valladolid in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Valladolid away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Valladolid?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sevilla's recent matches and 33% of Valladolid's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Valladolid usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of Sevilla's matches and 100% of Valladolid's.
Do Sevilla and Valladolid tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Valladolid in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sevilla edge out Valladolid 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Valladolid 2-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.97 xG and Valladolid 0.80 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.81 / defence 1.06 against Valladolid attack 0.70 / defence 1.62, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 63% | Draw 24% | Valladolid 13%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 50%, Valladolid 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Valladolid's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 17% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 0.83 PPG, Valladolid 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Valladolid (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 4.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.