Sevilla vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 October 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sevilla's home record at : 4W 3D 3L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Osasuna have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Osasuna away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Sevilla carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.50 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sevilla register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Osasuna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sevilla, 4 for Osasuna and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 61% versus Osasuna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 58% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.34 xG and Osasuna 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.877 / defence 1.134 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.609 / away 1.139. Data: 41 Sevilla games / 41 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 36%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Osasuna 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Osasuna lead the H2H ledger, but Sevilla carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 38% | Draw 26% | Osasuna 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Sevilla 1.34 / Osasuna 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.877 / def 1.134 | Osasuna attack 1.016 / def 0.953 | league avg home 1.609 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Osasuna xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 38% chance of winning, Osasuna a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Record (10 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 4 | Osasuna 4W.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
38%
2.65
26%
3.84
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.66
1.31
Osasuna xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.85
9%
10.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.31 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 14W 7D 20L from 41 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 18L across 41 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Osasuna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.20 PPG, Osasuna on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 8W 4D 8L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 3W 4D 13L across 20 trips, a 0.65 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.20 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.15 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Osasuna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 14W 7D 20L in their last 41 games (1.20 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 13W 10D 18L in their last 41 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.40 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.65 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 60%, Osasuna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sevilla) and 40% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Sevilla's recent matches and 40% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Sevilla's recent games and 40% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.