Sevilla vs Osasuna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Osasuna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a La Liga clash, Regular Season - 10 as Sevilla welcome Osasuna to Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán. Kick-off is set for Monday 26 October 2026 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sevilla, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sevilla's home record at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán: 5W 1D 4L from 10 La Liga appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Osasuna stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Osasuna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Osasuna away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Sevilla) versus 1.10 (Osasuna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Sevilla register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Osasuna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sevilla, 4 for Osasuna and 4 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Osasuna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sevilla trading profile (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Osasuna trading profile (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 62% versus Osasuna 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 57% | Osasuna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 2.19 xG and Osasuna 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.883 / defence 1.020 | Osasuna attack 1.041 / defence 1.540. League average goals — home 1.611 / away 1.254. Osasuna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.540 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 46 Sevilla games / 46 Osasuna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 22%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Osasuna 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (2.19 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sevilla as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 66%. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 60% | Osasuna 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Osasuna | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán • Kick-off: Monday 26 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 22% | Osasuna 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 66% | xG Sevilla 2.19 / Osasuna 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.883 / def 1.020 | Osasuna attack 1.041 / def 1.540 | league avg home 1.611 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Osasuna xG
66%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Osasuna kick off?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is scheduled to kick off at 20:00 on Monday 26 October 2026 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
Where is Sevilla vs Osasuna being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez-Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Osasuna part of?
Sevilla vs Osasuna is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 56% chance of winning, Osasuna a 22% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sevilla and Osasuna will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Osasuna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Record (10 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 4 | Osasuna 4W.
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in?
Sevilla (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Osasuna (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sevilla's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Osasuna's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Osasuna's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
56%
1.79
22%
4.47
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Sevilla xG
Total xG
3.52
1.33
Osasuna xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.47
22%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
11%
8.94
Win to Nil
15%
6.76
2%
41.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 6.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Osasuna expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.33 for Osasuna, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Osasuna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sevilla's recent record stands at 16W 9D 22L from 47 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Sevilla is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Osasuna, meanwhile, have gone 14W 11D 22L across 47 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Osasuna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.21 PPG, Osasuna on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sevilla have managed 9W 4D 10L from 23 games — 1.35 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Osasuna's away record stands at 3W 4D 16L across 23 trips, a 0.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Osasuna's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Osasuna are on 1.15 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Blended
Osasuna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Osasuna in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 16W 9D 22L in their last 47 games (1.21 PPG), while Osasuna have gone 14W 11D 22L in their last 47 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Osasuna away?
Sevilla's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.35 PPG; Osasuna away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla's record when hosting Osasuna specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Sevilla
4
Draws
4
Osasuna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Osasuna?
From 10 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Osasuna have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Osasuna last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when Osasuna 2-1 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Osasuna?
Osasuna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Osasuna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 61%, Osasuna 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sevilla) and 48% (Osasuna).
On the defensive side: Osasuna in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Osasuna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Osasuna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Sevilla's recent matches and 44% of Osasuna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Osasuna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Sevilla's recent games and 48% of Osasuna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Osasuna tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Osasuna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.