Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Las Palmas at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Las Palmas fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sevilla and Las Palmas meet at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán in La Liga, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at 20:30 UTC.
Form
Sevilla (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 La Liga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sevilla have posted 1W 6D 3L at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Las Palmas have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.60 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sevilla register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Las Palmas in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Sevilla 2W, Las Palmas 0W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sevilla — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Las Palmas — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 58% versus Las Palmas 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 45% | Las Palmas 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.864 / defence 1.157 | Las Palmas attack 0.951 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.184. Data: 73 Sevilla games / 73 Las Palmas games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 35% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 38%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Las Palmas 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Las Palmas are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Las Palmas if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 80% | Las Palmas 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Las Palmas | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 May 2025, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 35% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Sevilla 1.24 / Las Palmas 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.864 / def 1.157 | Las Palmas attack 0.951 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: Las Palmas (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Las Palmas xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Las Palmas kick off?
Sevilla vs Las Palmas kicked off at 20:30 on Tuesday 13 May 2025 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Sevilla 1 - 0 Las Palmas.
Where is Sevilla vs Las Palmas being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Las Palmas part of?
Sevilla vs Las Palmas is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 35% chance of winning, Las Palmas a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Las Palmas the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Sevilla and Las Palmas will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Las Palmas have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Las Palmas?
Record (3 meetings): Sevilla 2W | Draws 1 | Las Palmas 0W.
What form are Sevilla and Las Palmas in?
Sevilla (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Las Palmas (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (0.86) and Las Palmas's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Las Palmas's attack (0.95x) against Sevilla's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Las Palmas Win
35%
2.85
27%
3.74
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.54
1.30
Las Palmas xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
27%
3.68
29%
3.46
Win to Nil
10%
10.47
11%
9.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 10.2 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Las Palmas expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.30 for Las Palmas, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Las Palmas?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 19W 22D 32L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Las Palmas's form line: 18W 18D 37L from 73 games, 0.99 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Sevilla against 0.99 for Las Palmas. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.22 PPG from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
On the road, Las Palmas have gone 8W 7D 21L from 36 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sevilla are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Las Palmas are on 1.00 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 73 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Las Palmas
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Las Palmas in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 19W 22D 32L in their last 73 games (1.08 PPG), while Las Palmas have gone 18W 18D 37L in their last 73 (0.99 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Las Palmas away?
Sevilla's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.22 PPG; Las Palmas away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sevilla have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Las Palmas — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
1
Draws
0
Las Palmas
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Las Palmas?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Las Palmas have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Las Palmas last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2025, when Sevilla 1-0 Las Palmas.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Las Palmas?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Las Palmas are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 64%, Las Palmas 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Sevilla) and 42% (Las Palmas).
On the defensive side: Las Palmas in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Las Palmas away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Las Palmas?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sevilla's games and 50% of Las Palmas's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Las Palmas usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Sevilla's recent games and 42% of Las Palmas's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Las Palmas tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Las Palmas in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sevilla defy the odds to beat Las Palmas 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Las Palmas 1-0 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 36, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.24 xG and Las Palmas 1.30 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Las Palmas landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.86 / defence 1.16 against Las Palmas attack 0.95 / defence 1.04, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 35% | Draw 27% | Las Palmas 38%, with Las Palmas to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Sevilla win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 45%, Las Palmas 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Las Palmas's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.08 PPG, Las Palmas 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Las Palmas (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.