Sevilla 4-2 Granada CF – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Sevilla at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sevilla vs Granada CF encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Granada CF travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Friday 8 April 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sevilla — All Games: 2W 7D 1L from 10 La Liga outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Sevilla's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sevilla are significantly better at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Granada CF stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Granada CF away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Sevilla are in the better shape of the two on current La Liga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Sevilla, 1 for Granada CF and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Granada CF winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Granada CF in-play and half-time data (30 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sevilla 43% versus Granada CF 60%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sevilla 27% | Granada CF 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.75 xG and Granada CF 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 1.057 / defence 0.956 | Granada CF attack 0.905 / defence 1.460. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.072. Granada CF bring a strong defensive rating of 1.460 — this is suppressing Sevilla's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 Sevilla games / 30 Granada CF games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 19%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 1.79 | Draw 4.17 | Granada CF 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sevilla (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Sevilla 50% | Granada CF 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Granada CF | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Friday 8 Apr 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 56% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 50% | xG Sevilla 1.75 / Granada CF 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 1.057 / def 0.956 | Granada CF attack 0.905 / def 1.460 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Granada CF xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Granada CF kick off?
Sevilla vs Granada CF kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 8 April 2022 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Sevilla 4 - 2 Granada CF.
Where is Sevilla vs Granada CF being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Granada CF part of?
Sevilla vs Granada CF is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 56% chance of winning, Granada CF a 19% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sevilla and Granada CF will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Granada CF have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Granada CF?
Record (1 meetings): Sevilla 0W | Draws 0 | Granada CF 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Granada CF in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Granada CF (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sevilla's attack rating (1.06) and Granada CF's defence rating (1.46), the model arrives at 1.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Granada CF's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
56%
1.78
24%
4.10
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.67
0.93
Granada CF xG
1.78
56%
Home win
4.10
24%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
40%
2.53
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
3%
29.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Granada CF expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Sevilla and 0.93 for Granada CF, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Granada CF?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 30 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.90 PPG on a 15W 12D 3L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Granada CF's form line: 6W 11D 13L from 30 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Put side by side, Sevilla are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Granada CF.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 2.43 PPG from 14 outings (10W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.90 PPG overall — Sevilla are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Granada CF have gone 2W 5D 7L from 14 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Granada CF are on 1.10 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Granada CF in 60%.
Defensively: Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 30 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Current Season
Granada CF
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Granada CF in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 15W 12D 3L in their last 30 games (1.90 PPG), while Granada CF have gone 6W 11D 13L in their last 30 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Granada CF away?
Sevilla's home record (2.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 2.43 PPG; Granada CF away: 0.79 PPG.
Have Sevilla or Granada CF been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sevilla have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Granada CF in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sevilla have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Dec 2023, when Sevilla won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Granada CF specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sevilla
0
Draws
1
Granada CF
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Granada CF?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 3, Granada CF have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Granada CF last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2024, when Sevilla 3-0 Granada CF.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Granada CF?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Granada CF are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 50%, Granada CF 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sevilla) and 43% (Granada CF).
On the defensive side: Sevilla keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Granada CF in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Granada CF away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Granada CF?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sevilla's recent matches and 50% of Granada CF's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sevilla vs Granada CF usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Sevilla's recent games and 43% of Granada CF's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sevilla and Granada CF tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Granada CF in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sevilla cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Granada CF.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Granada CF 4-2 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 31, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.75 xG and Granada CF 0.93 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Granada CF outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 1.06 / defence 0.96 against Granada CF attack 0.91 / defence 1.46, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 56% | Draw 24% | Granada CF 19%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 27%, Granada CF 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Granada CF's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sevilla arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 0.97. That form edge translated into the three points. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Granada CF (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.