Sevilla 5-1 Almeria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sevilla at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sevilla vs Almeria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A La Liga encounter, Regular Season - 7 sees Almeria travel to Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán to take on Sevilla. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 26 September 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sevilla stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 La Liga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sevilla have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Sevilla have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all La Liga games this season, Almeria have recorded 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Almeria have played only a handful of La Liga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sevilla 0.90 PPG, Almeria 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Sevilla have won 1, Almeria 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with Sevilla winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Sevilla in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Almeria in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sevilla 60% and Almeria 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sevilla 51% | Almeria 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sevilla 1.47 xG and Almeria 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sevilla attack 0.882 / defence 1.045 | Almeria attack 0.976 / defence 1.091. League average goals — home 1.527 / away 1.211. Data: 43 Sevilla games / 44 Almeria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 26% | Almeria 32%. Fair-value odds: Sevilla 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Almeria 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sevilla at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sevilla offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sevilla 70% | Almeria 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sevilla vs Almeria | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sevilla 42% | Draw 26% | Almeria 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Sevilla 1.47 / Almeria 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Sevilla attack 0.882 / def 1.045 | Almeria attack 0.976 / def 1.091 | league avg home 1.527 / away 1.211 • Poisson stance: Sevilla (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Sevilla xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Almeria xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sevilla vs Almeria kick off?
Sevilla vs Almeria kicked off at 18:00 on Tuesday 26 September 2023 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What was the final score in Sevilla vs Almeria?
Sevilla 5 - 1 Almeria.
Where is Sevilla vs Almeria being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán.
What competition is Sevilla vs Almeria part of?
Sevilla vs Almeria is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our statistical model gives Sevilla a 42% chance of winning, Almeria a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sevilla the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Sevilla and Almeria will score (BTTS).
Will Sevilla vs Almeria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Almeria?
Record (2 meetings): Sevilla 1W | Draws 0 | Almeria 1W.
What form are Sevilla and Almeria in?
Sevilla (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Almeria (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sevilla's attack at 0.88x the league average against Almeria's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Almeria's attack versus Sevilla's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sevilla Win
42%
2.37
26%
3.82
32%
3.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Sevilla xG
Total xG
2.71
1.24
Almeria xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
3.17
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
7%
13.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.3 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sevilla vs Almeria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Sevilla and Almeria expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Sevilla and 1.24 for Almeria, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sevilla vs Almeria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 43 outings, Sevilla have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 14W 11D 18L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Sevilla, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Almeria's form line: 11W 10D 22L from 43 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Almeria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sevilla on 1.23 PPG, Almeria on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sevilla have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, Almeria have gone 1W 6D 14L from 21 away games — 0.43 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Almeria's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sevilla come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sevilla are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Almeria are on 1.28 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sevilla have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Almeria in 67%.
Last 43 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sevilla
Early Season
Almeria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sevilla and Almeria in coming into this match?
Sevilla have gone 14W 11D 18L in their last 43 games (1.23 PPG), while Almeria have gone 11W 10D 22L in their last 43 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sevilla at home or Almeria away?
Sevilla's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sevilla at home: 1.33 PPG; Almeria away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2023, when Sevilla won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sevilla's record when hosting Almeria specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Sevilla
1
Draws
1
Almeria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sevilla and Almeria?
From 4 meetings on record, Sevilla have won 2, Almeria have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sevilla and Almeria last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2024, when Almeria 2-2 Sevilla.
Who has won more matches between Sevilla and Almeria?
Sevilla have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sevilla are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Almeria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sevilla 57%, Almeria 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Sevilla) and 62% (Almeria). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Almeria in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sevilla home games / Almeria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sevilla play Almeria?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Sevilla's games and 71% of Almeria's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sevilla vs Almeria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Sevilla's matches and 62% of Almeria's.
Do Sevilla and Almeria tend to score early?
Sevilla have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Almeria in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sevilla run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Almeria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sevilla beat Almeria 5-1 at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán, Regular Season - 7, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sevilla 1.47 xG and Almeria 1.24 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Sevilla beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sevilla attack 0.88 / defence 1.04 against Almeria attack 0.98 / defence 1.09, drawn from 43/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sevilla 42% | Draw 26% | Almeria 32%, with Sevilla to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sevilla 51%, Almeria 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sevilla's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Almeria's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sevilla 1.23 PPG, Almeria 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sevilla win broke the near-deadlock. Sevilla (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm. Almeria (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.