Real Madrid 1-1 Girona – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Real Madrid at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Real Madrid vs Girona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Real Madrid and Girona meet at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu in La Liga, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 30 October 2022 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Real Madrid have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 La Liga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Real Madrid, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Real Madrid's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.30 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu this season.
Girona (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 La Liga outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Girona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Girona have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Real Madrid's 2.80 PPG return is 1.90 points per game ahead of Girona's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading Data
Real Madrid goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Girona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Real Madrid 82% and Girona 82% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Real Madrid 82% | Girona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Real Madrid 2.80 xG and Girona 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Real Madrid attack 1.582 / defence 0.901 | Girona attack 0.896 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.140. Real Madrid carry an above-average attack strength of 1.582 — their λ of 2.80 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Girona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Real Madrid's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Real Madrid games / 11 Girona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Real Madrid 76% | Draw 14% | Girona 10%. Fair-value odds: Real Madrid 1.32 | Draw 7.14 | Girona 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Real Madrid (76%) — a 66pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Real Madrid at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.72 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Real Madrid 50% | Girona 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Real Madrid vs Girona | Competition: La Liga, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Santiago Bernabéu • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Oct 2022, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Real Madrid 76% | Draw 14% | Girona 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 56% | xG Real Madrid 2.80 / Girona 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Real Madrid attack 1.582 / def 0.901 | Girona attack 0.896 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Real Madrid (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.80
Real Madrid xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Girona xG
56%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Real Madrid vs Girona kick off?
Real Madrid vs Girona kicked off at 15:15 on Sunday 30 October 2022 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What was the final score in Real Madrid vs Girona?
Real Madrid 1 - 1 Girona.
Where is Real Madrid vs Girona being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu.
What competition is Real Madrid vs Girona part of?
Real Madrid vs Girona is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the La Liga (Spain).
Who is favourite to win Real Madrid vs Girona?
Our statistical model gives Real Madrid a 76% chance of winning, Girona a 10% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Real Madrid the favourite.
Will both teams score in Real Madrid vs Girona?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Real Madrid and Girona will score (BTTS).
Will Real Madrid vs Girona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Girona?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Real Madrid and Girona in?
Real Madrid (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Girona (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Real Madrid's attacking strength (1.58x league average) is weighed against Girona's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.80. Flip it around — Girona's attack (0.90x) against Real Madrid's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.92.
These ratings are built from 49/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 9.5%. Close behind: 3-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Real Madrid Win
76%
1.31
14%
7.12
10%
10.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.80
Real Madrid xG
Total xG
3.72
0.92
Girona xG
1.31
76%
Home win
7.12
14%
Draw
10.41
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
6%
16.43
Win to Nil
30%
3.29
1%
170.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 6.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Real Madrid vs Girona?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Real Madrid and Girona expected to score?
The model projects 2.80 expected goals for Real Madrid and 0.92 for Girona, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Real Madrid vs Girona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Real Madrid's recent record stands at 10W 1D 0L from 11 games, a 2.82 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Real Madrid is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Girona, meanwhile, have gone 2W 3D 6L across 11 games — 0.82 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Girona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Real Madrid by 2.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Girona heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Real Madrid have managed 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — 2.60 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Girona's away record stands at 0W 1D 4L across 5 trips, a 0.20 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.82 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Girona's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Real Madrid come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Real Madrid are averaging 2.55 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Girona are on 1.36 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Real Madrid have seen both teams score in 82% of their recent games; Girona in 82%.
Last 11 Results — La Liga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Real Madrid
Blended
Girona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Real Madrid and Girona in coming into this match?
Real Madrid have gone 10W 1D 0L in their last 11 games (2.82 PPG), while Girona have gone 2W 3D 6L in their last 11 (0.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Real Madrid at home or Girona away?
Real Madrid's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Real Madrid at home: 2.60 PPG; Girona away: 0.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in La Liga. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Real Madrid won 4-0 on 10 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Real Madrid have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Girona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Real Madrid
3
Draws
1
Girona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Real Madrid and Girona?
From 8 meetings on record, Real Madrid have won 4, Girona have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Real Madrid and Girona last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Real Madrid 1-1 Girona.
Who has won more matches between Real Madrid and Girona?
Real Madrid have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Real Madrid are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Girona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 100% for Real Madrid, 80% for Girona — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Real Madrid and 60% for Girona. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Real Madrid home games / Girona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Real Madrid play Girona?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Real Madrid's games and 80% of Girona's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Real Madrid vs Girona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Real Madrid's matches and 60% of Girona's.
Do Real Madrid and Girona tend to score early?
Real Madrid have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Girona in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Real Madrid and Girona share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Real Madrid and Girona finished level at 1-1 at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Regular Season - 12, in the La Liga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Real Madrid 2.80 xG and Girona 0.92 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Real Madrid fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Real Madrid attack 1.58 / defence 0.90 against Girona attack 0.90 / defence 1.22, drawn from 49/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Real Madrid 76% | Draw 14% | Girona 10%, with Real Madrid to win its most likely call at 76%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Real Madrid 82%, Girona 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 82%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Real Madrid's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Girona's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Real Madrid arrived the stronger side — 2.82 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Real Madrid (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward. Girona (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.